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星期五

  1. Browser Use精选

    Browser Use 联合创始人:Agent 框架的苦涩教训

    Browser Use 联合创始人兼 CTO 撰文称,agent 本质上只是一个消息 for-loop,99% 的工作在模型内部完成,框架里的抽象反而会限制模型能力。他复盘团队如何推翻初版框架,重写为极简的 BU Agent,让模型直接发出 Chrome DevTools Protocol 指令并调用浏览器扩展 API,先给最大能力再按评测收紧限制。文中还介绍了用于控制浏览器状态膨胀的 ephemeral messages、用 done 工具显式终止 agent 的做法,并宣布将这套方案以 agent-sdk 开源。

    The Agent Loop

    very other LLM framework Seriously. The way they implement LLM objects is painful. So I wrote my own. Super easy way to do calling. That's all they do - for Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google. Based on our telemetry, these account for 95% of use cases. Same interface. Full control over caching, serialization, provider quirks. No magic. No surprises. It's so much easier to do caching and implement messages yourself. Completely model-agnostic. You're not locked into one provider. You just decide. Ephem

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星期二

  1. Ahead of AI

    2025 年大语言模型回顾:进展、局限与未来预测

    Sebastian Raschka 回顾 2025 年大语言模型发展,认为主要进展来自 RLVR、GRPO、推理时扩展、工具调用及架构效率优化,而非单纯扩大预训练规模。他指出公开基准已难以可靠反映真实能力,并预测 2026 年 RLVR 将扩展到数学和编码以外的领域,本地工具调用与智能体能力会逐步普及。文章同时主张将 AI 作为提升专业工作的伙伴,而非完全替代人的思考、编码与研究。

    written about in Beyond Standard LLMs, for instance, text diffusion models are an interesting approach. Right now, they fall into the category of experimental research models, but Google shared that they will release a Gemini Diffusion model. It won’t rival their state-of-the-art offerings in modeling quality, but it will be really fast and attractive for tasks with low-latency requirements (e.g., code completion). Also, two weeks ago, the open-weight LLaDA 2.0 models dropped. The largest one, a

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星期日

  1. Benedict Evans:Blog

    AI 如何改变互联网的 Mechanical Turk 与冷启动问题

    Benedict Evans 分析称,互联网平台依赖用户行为数据形成 Mechanical Turk 式推荐,但 LLM 带来了对内容和意图的更深理解,可能让新进入者通过 API 调用通用模型来绕过冷启动。他还指出,智能体助手将成为新的数据入口,但当前 AI 状态类似 1997 年的互联网,具体路径尚不明确。

    and draws conclusions from that. Amazon knows that if you bought X, you might buy Y, because it's seen what lots of people buy and saw that if they buy X, they're likely to buy Y. Google's dominance of search is based in part on seeing what people search for, and what they click on and what they search for next. Of course, this is a network effect, and comes with a cold start problem that’s a barrier to entry. How do you provide those recommendations, suggestions and connections before you have

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星期三

  1. SemiAnalysis精选

    xAI 的 Colossus 2:全球首座吉瓦级数据中心、独特强化学习方法与融资

    xAI 正在孟菲斯与密西西比州南海文建设 Colossus 2,SemiAnalysis 预计其将成为全球首座吉瓦级数据中心,并称项目在约六个月内形成约 200MW 冷却能力。Solaris 计划到 Q2 2027 为 xAI 部署超过 1.1GW 的燃气轮机,但项目需要数百亿美元资本支出,而 xAI 仍需筹资购买 GPU。

    erected from scratch in 122 days. With roughly 200,000 H100/H200s and 30,000 GB200 NVL72, it remains, today, the largest fully operational, single-coherent cluster (setting apart Google, master of multi-datacenter-training). However, Colossus 1’s 300 MW looks modest next to the Gigawatt-scale clusters under construction by OpenAI, Meta and Anthropic. Their hyperscaler partners are happy to leverage their balance sheet and win the market by throwing dollars at it. Was xAI’s prowess a one-time wo

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星期四

  1. SemiAnalysis精选

    又一次巨大飞跃:NVIDIA Rubin CPX 专用加速器与机架

    NVIDIA 推出面向推理 prefill 阶段的 Rubin CPX,以更高算力占比和低成本内存减少 HBM 与 NVLink 资源浪费。单芯片提供 20 PFLOPS 稠密 FP4 算力、128GB GDDR7 和 2TB/s 带宽,并通过 PCIe Gen 6 联网。该产品将用于固定配置的 VR200 NVL144 CPX 或更灵活的 Vera Rubin CPX 双机架方案。

    terms of performance or architecture, Nvidia evolves its products along another dimension. Let’s discuss how widespread adoption of Rubin CPX GPU could impact competing solutions. Google TPU The TPU’s 3D Torus scale-up network provides a unique advantage in that it allows a maximum pod size of up to 9,216 TPUs. This is the largest world size in the industry, yet it offers some of the lowest scale-up networking cost per accelerator. This enables a very broad array of parallelism schemes that othe

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星期一

  1. SemiAnalysis精选

    华为 Ascend 产能爬坡:晶粒库存、TSMC 持续代工与 HBM 瓶颈

    SemiAnalysis 预计华为今年出货 80.5 万颗 Ascend,其中 65.3 万颗为 910C,来自 TSMC 的逾 290 万颗晶粒库存和 SMIC 扩产支撑了产量。其判断 SMIC 年底将不再是主要瓶颈,但约 1300 万颗进口 HBM 堆栈可能耗尽,明年 CXMT 约 200 万颗 HBM 堆栈仅够生产 25万–30 万颗 910C。

    ng pieces in the race for intelligence. Beijing plans for the long term and knows it must secure its own domestic compute destiny. There is an irony: in the 2010s China kicked out Google to enforce its Great Firewall and foster its domestic industry, this time the US government is withholding hardware technology so they cannot seize the lead in AI. We believe that at China’s core, they want to control not only its internet and AI, but the hardware that supports it. From silicon to tokens, China

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星期五

  1. One Useful Thing

    大众智能:十亿人获得强大 AI 后会发生什么

    超过十亿人已经常使用 AI 聊天机器人,模型成本下降和自动路由正让更多免费用户接触强大的推理模型。GPT-5 推出数日后,付费用户使用推理模型的比例从 7% 升至 24%,免费用户使用最强模型的比例从接近零升至 7%。这种“大众智能”在扩大知识和创作能力的同时,也将给教育、医疗、司法及信息信任带来新问题。

    sers. Gemini and other leading AIs add hundreds of millions more. In my posts, I often focus on the advances that AI is making (for example, in the past few weeks, both OpenAI and Google AIs chatbots got gold medals in the International Math Olympiad), but that obscures a broader shift that's been building: we're entering an era of Mass Intelligence, where powerful AI is becoming as accessible as a Google search. Until recently, free users of these systems (the overwhelming majority) had access

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星期三

  1. SemiAnalysis精选

    H100 与 GB200 NVL72 训练基准:功耗、TCO、可靠性及软件改进分析

    SemiAnalysis 对 H100 与 GB200 NVL72 的训练性能、功耗、TCO 和可靠性进行了基准分析,发现 GB200 NVL72 的每 GPU 总成本及 TCO 约为 H100 的 1.6 倍。H100 软件优化使 GPT-3 175B 的 BF16 MFU 在一年内从 34% 升至 54%。GB200 NVL72 尚受可靠性和诊断工具限制,当前仍无法完成超大规模训练。

    large-scale training runs done yet on GB200 NVL72 as software continues to mature and reliability challenges are worked through. This means that Nvidia’s H100 and H200 as well as Google TPUs remain the only GPUs that are today being successfully used to complete frontier-scale training. As it stands today, even the most advanced operators at frontier labs and CSPs are not yet able to carry out mega training runs on the GB200 NVL72. With that said, every new architecture naturally requires time

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星期三

  1. SemiAnalysis

    分析:GPT-5 为广告变现与消费级 SuperApp 铺路

    SemiAnalysis 认为,GPT-5 的实时 Router 可按查询复杂度分配模型与算力,为 OpenAI 变现 700m+ 免费用户奠定基础。免费用户接触推理模型的数量首日增长 7 倍,付费用户增长近 3.5 倍;文章推测 OpenAI 或通过商业意图识别、智能体购物和交易抽成打造消费级 SuperApp,而非采用展示广告。

    How ChatGPT will monetize free users, Router is the Release, AIs will serve Ads, Google's moat eroded?, The shift of purchasing intent queries To many power users (Pro and Plus), GPT5 was a disappointing release. But with closer inspection, the real release is focused on the vast majority of ChatGPT’s users, which is the 700m+ free userbase that is growing rapidly. Power users should be disappointed; this release wasn’t for them. The real consumer opportunity for OpenAI lies with the largest use

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星期六

  1. SemiAnalysis精选

    Meta 超级智能分析:领导力、算力、人才与数据

    Meta 正通过收购 Scale AI 49% 股份、组建超级智能团队并扩建 GPU 集群,全面重整生成式 AI 战略。其计划以高额薪酬引进顶尖人才,并建设 Prometheus 和 Hyperion 集群;报告同时将 Llama 4 Behemoth 的受挫归因于注意力、MoE 路由、数据质量及规模化训练问题。

    e company is going from GPU-poor to GPU-filthy-rich on a per researcher basis. Meta GenAI 1.0: AI Incrementalism Compared to pure-play AI labs like OpenAI, companies like Meta and Google have followed an “AI Incrementalism” strategy by enhancing existing products with better recommendation systems and GenAI to improve ad targeting, content tagging, and internal tools. This has paid off handsomely in financial results, allowing Meta to shrug off Apple’s attempts at stopping them from tracking use

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星期四

  1. Shunyu Yao:Blog

    姚顺雨:AI 进入后半场,评估比训练更重要

    姚顺雨在博客中提出 AI 已进入后半场,重心将从开发新训练方法与模型转向定义问题,评估变得比训练更重要。他认为 RL 终于能泛化,语言预训练提供的先验、把推理加入动作空间以及环境三者构成了通用配方,使基准被标准化攻克。由此他提出效用问题,指出评估假设与真实世界存在差异,例如评估默认自动运行且任务独立同分布,而现实中智能体需与人持续交互、任务按顺序累积。

    t set with 500 tasks, you run each task independently, average the task metrics, and get an overall metric. But in reality, you solve tasks sequentially rather than in parallel. A Google SWE solves google3 issues increasingly better as she gets more familiar with the repo, but a SWE agent solves many issues in the same repo without gaining such familiarity. We obviously need long-term memory methods (and there are), but academia does not have the proper benchmarks to justify the need, or even th

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星期五

  1. Benedict Evans:Blog精选

    Benedict Evans:苹果的创新与执行出了什么问题

    Benedict Evans 撰文分析苹果的创新与执行困境:iPhone 多年来销量持平,iPad、Watch、AirPods 也趋于稳定,增长几乎全部来自服务,而服务更多是在榨取现有用户而非创造新品类。他认为 Vision Pro 更像概念或演示而非可量产产品,新 Siri 则从去年 WWDC 的清晰演示变成延期到 2025 年底甚至 2026、2027 年的未完成品,反映出苹果执行机器出现了明显问题。

    Apple TV+, are baffling in their pointlessness. However, they are all very effective in getting cash from Apple users (and, of course, at least $20bn of this is TAC payments from Google to make it the default in Safari, for now). Meanwhile, since both the Watch and AirPods on one side and the services on the other are all essentially about the attach rate to iPhone users, you could group them together as one big upsell, which suggests a different chart: half of Apple’s revenue is the iPhone and

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星期二

  1. Benedict Evans:Blog

    Benedict Evans:Deep Research 的问题在于概率性提问与确定性答案的错配

    Benedict Evans 以 OpenAI 官方产品页上的智能手机市场示例报告为对象,检查 Deep Research 的数据来源与具体数字。他发现该表格引用 Statcounter 和 Statista,但 Statcounter 衡量的是流量而非采用率,且并未给出报告所称的日本市场 69% iOS 数据;Statista 背后的 Kantar Worldpanel 实际给出的是 63% Android 和 36% iOS,与报告结论相反。他认为问题在于向模型提出的是概率性问题,却要求确定性的数字答案,而只要表格中存在错误,用户就无法信任整份报告;不过在有领域专长、只需把数天工作压缩到数小时的场景下,这类工具仍有价值。

    are AI to interns). Statista, meanwhile, aggregates other people’s data, makes sure it ranks highly in SEO, and then tries to get you to register or pay to see the result. I think Google should ban this company from the index, but even if you disagree, saying this is the source is like saying the source is ‘a Google search result’. Again, this is an intern-level issue. Setting that aside, though, let’s dig some more, and look at one number - Japan. Deep Research says that the Japanese smartphone

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星期五

  1. METR Blog精选

    METR:AI 模型在公开部署前就可能带来危险

    METR 发文指出,当前前沿实验室的安全政策多聚焦部署前测试,但模型在公开部署前就可能带来风险,包括模型权重被窃取滥用、实验室员工内部滥用,以及 AI 智能体在训练或内部使用中自主追求非预期目标。文章建议把重心转向更早的能力测试与预测、模型权重安全与内部监控、以及透明披露和举报人保护等政策。

    -01-17-ai-models-dangerous-before-public-deployment/}} , year = {2025} , month = {01} , } Many frontier AI safety policies from scaling labs (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, Google DeepMind’s Frontier Safety Framework, etc.), as well as past work by third party evaluators including UK AISI , Apollo Research , and METR , focus on pre-deployment testing – ensuring that the AI model is safe and that the lab has sufficient security before the lab deploys the model to the public. Such pre-deplo

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星期五

  1. vLLM 官方博客

    vLLM 2024 年回顾与 2025 年愿景

    vLLM 回顾了 2024 年的社区与技术进展,并提出面向 2025 年的推理扩展、生产部署和开放架构路线。其 GitHub stars 从 14,000 增至 32,600,贡献者从 190 增至 740,月下载量从 6,000 增至 27,000,支持的模型架构接近 100 种。项目还计划发布重新设计的 V1 架构,并继续推进 KV cache、MoE、长上下文、量化、推测解码和集群级部署能力。

    izations for H100, with support for every NVIDIA GPU from V100 and newer; AMD GPUs: Support for MI200, MI300, and Radeon RX 7900 series - with rapidly growing adoption for MI300X; Google TPUs: Support for TPU v4, v5p, v5e, and the latest v6e; AWS Inferentia and Trainium: Supports for trn1/inf2 instances; Intel Gaudi (HPU) and GPU (XPU): Leveraging Intel GPU and Gaudi architectures for AI workloads; CPUs: Featuring support for a growing list of ISAs - x86, ARM, and PowerPC vLLM's hardware compati

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星期二

  1. Benedict Evans:Blog

    Benedict Evans:AI 的夏天,LLM 是技术而非产品

    Benedict Evans 撰文指出,ChatGPT 两个月达到 1 亿用户,但多数人试用一两次后不再回来,过去 9-12 个月活跃用户增长有限。他认为 LLM 本身不是产品,而是需要被拆解重组为新的交互方式和工具的技术,企业侧目前仍以试点为主,例如 Accenture 去年宣布的 3 亿美元生成式 AI 业务对应 300 个项目。他同时提到 Morgan Stanley 的 CIO 调查显示 30% 的大公司 CIO 预计 2026 年前不会部署任何相关应用。

    there been much growth in the active users (as opposed to the vaguely curious) in the last 9-12 months, as shown in a bunch of similar surveys? The most revealing - possibly - is Google Trends, which must always be used with caution, but which seems to show a correlation with school holidays. There are a couple of ways that you could answer this. It does take time to change your habits and ways of thinking around an entirely new kind of tool (remember when we printed out emails?). We can be cer

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星期二

  1. a16z:News

    a16z 创始人 Marc Andreessen 长文:AI 将拯救世界

    a16z 联合创始人 Marc Andreessen 发表长文《Why AI Will Save the World》,主张 AI 不会毁灭人类、不会摧毁社会、不会造成大规模失业,反而会带来生产力与经济繁荣。他把 AI 风险恐慌类比为历史上的技术道德恐慌,用 Baptists 与 Bootleggers 框架批评监管推动者,并称唯一真实风险是中国取得全球 AI 主导地位,主张美国全力加速 AI 发展、放开开源与创业竞争。

    s is precisely what is already happening in AI – it’s why you can use state of the art generative AI not just at low cost but even for free today in the form of Microsoft Bing and Google Bard – and it is what will continue to happen. Not because such vendors are foolish or generous but precisely because they are greedy – they want to maximize the size of their market, which maximizes their profits. So what happens is the opposite of technology driving centralization of wealth – individual custom

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