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间关停某项服务。任何支出都能以此为由，但这很少能说服管理层。相反，如果把这个情景按其发生概率加权计入风险核算，成本和营收就能作为独立的论据令人信服。 第一项：成本——切换成本作为定价空间 涨价很常见，而且往往理由充分。然而，如果供应商知道客户切换需要付出高昂代价，它在定价上就有更大的空间。这种锁定效应在经济学中已有充分描述。例如，微软自2026年7月1日起将Microsoft 365套件按不同套餐涨价5%至33%，并以新增的安全和AI功能作为理由。是否必须接受这样的涨价，只能结合自身的切换成本来判断。 VMware的例子展示了供应商锁定如何转化为价格。自被博通收购以来，不再提供永久许可证，客户只能购买固定产品包中的订阅，并按处理器核心数计费。云管理供应商CloudBolt于2026年1月对北美大型企业302名IT决策者进行的一项调查显示，对大多数客户而言，成本因此上升了25%至49%。尽管如此，只有4%的受访者完全替换了VMware；86%的人减少了使用量。从供应商的角度看，其行为在经济上是理性的：它接受失去一部分客户，并从那些无法迅速切换的客户身上赚得更多。 尽管如此，锁定效应往往并

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aude 抢，开源模型在下面往上顶。市场里第二是最难受的位置，因为它以后只能跟 Anthropic 打价格。他的说法是最低成本、最高毛利的玩家拿走溢价，别人只能在价格上竞争，而价格战会一直告诉客户你不如人家。 公平起见，反面证据他也给了。OpenAI 最近在企业销售上很强，签的是那些老牌 1500 强公司，还在针对 Anthropic 的客户打激进折扣，Q3 执行力不错。Joey 补的那个数字更扎心：10 亿周活里只有 6% 付费，还要养所有免费用户。 Joey 那边算的是另一笔账。他们今天只占 Fortune 500 运营预算的 0.1%，摊到每个员工头上每月不到 8 美元。政府客户只占收入 1% 左右，而这条线对面是几亿个 Microsoft 365 商业席位。 两家前沿实验室加起来的 ARR 已经 1200 亿美元，Joey 说这相当于球场还没建，他们还在铺停车场的沥青、画线。这个比喻有点土，但把位置说清楚了。 真正要盯的是这套 90% 的增量毛利，能不能在客户从程序员扩散到普通白领的时候守住。写招股书的人已经把答案摆在那儿了，他们从不让你失望。 更多硬核播客内容：Podwise

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gingFace 免费课 Training Agents（轨迹 SFT → 蒸馏 → GRPO → 搭 RL 环境）的线下延续，重点讲工业侧的实现。 PPT 合集： https://t.co/mvOl6omthQ 系列课程： https://t.co/jDCMFTlXGn Youtube 视频： https://t.co/NBRXbikmbL Gobind（Microsoft / GitHub & Foundry）-- 企业 RL 传统大企业（工业、制造、能源）买的是业务指标：延迟、准确、以及后训练的风险可控；关心整条链路（工具、数据、网络、harness、墙钟），不是某一个模型。真实 Agent 常挂几十到上百个工具，很多问题要当分布式系统来解。做法上：先快速定制现成 harness，用生产轨迹搭仿真，再故意扰动（过期数据、超时），配上功能正确与安全类校验器。后训练是 SFT / 蒸馏 / DPO / RL 混用；倾向模块化决策模型，而不是凡事一台前沿大模型。展望包括：以后更多手搓奖励与环境；GitHub 上会出现可发现的「gym」资源；物理 AI 与对齐、监管会跟上。 Victor

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得收入分成。 对。如果你是AWS，你会说：“我以每兆瓦1000万美元的价格为Anthropic提供算力，但现在我能拿到每兆瓦650亿美元中的16%，外加算力成本，”所以我们现在看到所有云厂商的利润率都在上升。部分原因是CPU利用率在上升，因为大量的编程工作，以及强化学习方面的一些工作，但我们所说的这些“token即服务”业务——也就是AWS Bedrock、Microsoft Foundry、Google Gemini Agent Enterprise平台（即此前的Vertex）——实际上正在大幅提高这些云厂商在AI上的利润率。 他们也在受益，最近股东们把功劳给了他们。第二季度，Azure和AWS的季度表现都极其、极其强劲，尤其是AWS，这得益于Anthropic在Bedrock上的增长。 你认为这会让亚马逊永远不想训练自己的前沿模型吗？他们在让AWS成为其他所有人的基础设施方面做得很好，但他们是少数没有因为缺乏自有模型而感到不安的大型科技公司之一。 是的，这很有意思。亚马逊非常乐意服务各种各样的客户，而他们的[前沿能力]非常少。当我们看自己对训练算力的估算时，除甲骨文之外，他们在所有

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e large model startup waves in China and the United States emerged at almost the same time, but the starting points of these young companies were quite different. In January 2023, Microsoft announced a new multi-billion-dollar investment in OpenAI, and their cooperation extended from funding to Azure cloud computing and supercomputing infrastructure. In the same year, Anthropic established deep partnerships with Google and Amazon successively, obtaining massive funding and computing power suppor

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聊天机器人了。官方数据显示，60%的任务要至少操作3步才能跑完，86%的任务最后要交出一份结果。 李彦宏在Create2026上给它做了一个定位：“DuMate是一个统一的入口，一个通用智能体，把百度的搜索AI API、秒哒、伐谋等能力串起来。” 我曾分析，“一个百度”理念应该被摆在李彦宏的桌面，在更高层面得到重视和思考。它类似“One Ford”“One Microsoft”，或者“一个吉利”，是在巨变的竞争格局下，一个领先大公司的战略重新聚焦。 紧接着是“长身体”阶段。这个时期，业界都聚焦在WorkBuddy、千问办公。百度搭子也在以每周约3个版本的速度迭代。 比如8月27日的百度AI Day上，百度提出“交付即惊艳”，一口气推出96项专业技能、打包成15个行业套件，覆盖金融财务、商务法务、产品研发、运营人力四大职能域。 百度集团执行副总裁沈抖披露，它们上线5个月迭代150次，过去一个月用户增长近9倍，日均提问量涨了60倍。 9月以来，百度搭子开始进入企业，从个人走向组织。期间，企业版上线，自媒体套件、设计套件、金融套件（接同花顺数据源）、投标套件陆续落地，专家套件累计超过30个。

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ork is the unsettling notion that software programs are, or could become, conscious. Many people consider these ideas absolute hogwash. One such person is Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, who published an essay in September arguing that model welfare research is not just unnecessary but could have “a disastrous impact on the wellbeing of humanity.” Suleyman believes that telling models they might have identities and rights could make them more difficult to control, as they might then take

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Microsoft has called for the deployment of AI security agents to monitor and control other AI agents operating within enterprises, warning that autonomous systems can pose insider threats even when they have not been compromised. In a blog post, Hayete Gallot, Executive Vice President of Microsoft Security, said enterprises could no longer assume that AI agents would behave as intended simply because their organisations had deployed them. “Frontier models, regardless of their origin, cannot be t

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Moved to tsrs over the weekend. Drop-in replacement. Around 5x faster for OC. Kind of amazing that it took Microsoft a team and two years to rewrite the TS compiler in go, and now you can just let an agent rip and get sth significantly better within weeks.

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s独立版.exe/GUI”的下载说明，指向一个名为“rea-agents: v6.3.0”的Release。 而REA官方的README里根本没有任何安装包，虽然官方仓库的Issue 2136里讨论过是否要做一个一键安装版，然而那只是REA作者的计划，并没有真正发布出来。 REA仿冒者的Release里是一个82.6 MB的压缩包，名为rea-x64.7z。Microsoft Defender把压缩包判为 Trojan:Script/Wacatac.B!ml，解压出的rea-x64.exe判为Trojan:Win32/Wacatac.B!ml。VirusTotal上，45个引擎中有8个报毒。 被举报时，这个文件已经被下载了172次。不要忘了，这个病毒是可以二次传播的，所以仿冒者造成的破坏要远远超过已经被曝光的172次。 10月13日，REA的维护者通过PR 2429合并了README警示，明确只认三个入口：github.com/morluto/rea、rea.tools 和 npm 包 rea-agents，并强调“相似的仓库名或复制的README，不能证明下载是官方的”。 道高一尺魔

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kerberg said owning the stack is “less about wanting to own a platform for its own sake. It’s about being able to build the best things.” The cost of going it alone Unlike Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, Meta doesn’t run a cloud business that rents its data centers to outside customers, so it shoulders those costs itself. Zuckerberg said a one-gigawatt AI data center costs $50 billion to $60 billion to build and roughly $15 billion a year to operate. Meta’s Hyperion campus in Louisiana is designe

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ily clone and modify other people’s products; it is the same general principle that has in recent weeks allowed for the viral, AI-driven clones of Adobe’s Creative Cloud software, Microsoft Office and the “decompilation” of hundreds of different video games. This tactic is being used not just on software you run on your computer, but also to reverse-engineer and modify the embedded software on physical devices. A person who claims to make guitar pedals, for example, claimed on Hacker News that h

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hat money is due to CoreWeave in 2028, and the companies who’ve agreed to these contracts can’t cancel them except under some very limited circumstances. Its biggest customers are Microsoft, OpenAI, and what is probably Nvidia, though CoreWeave doesn’t disclose who its third-biggest customer is. Those three generated almost three-quarters of the company’s second quarter revenue. Microsoft and Nvidia are probably good for the money — at least, as long as it benefits them to be good for the money.

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kerberg said owning the stack is “less about wanting to own a platform for its own sake. It’s about being able to build the best things.” The cost of going it alone Unlike Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, Meta doesn’t run a cloud business that rents its data centers to outside customers, so it shoulders those costs itself. Zuckerberg said a one-gigawatt AI data center costs $50 billion to $60 billion to build and roughly $15 billion a year to operate. Meta’s Hyperion campus in Louisiana is designe

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rated business : 2 customers accounted for nearly 25% of revenue in 2025.5 Each started with a wedge to earn the cloud moniker : Amazon with ecommerce ; Google with search & ads ; Microsoft with the operating system. Anthropic’s angle : many of the best AI models in the world & the leading coding harness, Claude Code. 87% of businesses on Ramp that buy a coding agent buy Claude Code, up 56 points in a year.6 Anthropic exerts its pricing power in this market, charging more per task than others :

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rs, along with telecom and fiber companies, to "pick up a neocloud here, a neocloud there." British provider Nscale shows how shaky things have gotten. According to The Telegraph, Microsoft pulled out of a data center deal in Loughton, England, where it had planned to lease 23,000 Nvidia chips. Utility providers don't expect power at the site until the 2030s. Nscale said its relationship with Microsoft remains "strong and long-term." At the same time, some investors are pushing to cut Nscale's t

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