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星期五

  1. Ed Zitron 长文 / Where’s Your Ed At

    Broadcom 批判指南:并购扩张与 AI 芯片增长背后的风险

    Broadcom 的 AI 收入占比从 Q1 FY2024 的 19.2%升至 Q3 FY2026 的 56.4%,公司未来增长日益依赖 AI 芯片业务。文章梳理其并购与削减成本的经营模式,并指出 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 预计将在 Fiscal Year 2027 成为其最大客户,由此形成显著的客户集中风险。

    evenue in its latest quarter. On a trailing-twelve-month basis, Broadcom is exceptional among its peers for how little it invests in R&D as a percentage of revenue, beaten only by NVIDIA, which has the excuse that it is the literal largest and most-profitable company on the US stock market. That’s because Broadcom doesn’t really do “innovation” or care about “being good to its customers, but by hoarding other people’s patents, iterating on their creations as little as necessary, and making it im

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星期三

  1. IEEE Spectrum

    AI 代码泛滥正在改变工程师审查代码的方式

    IEEE Spectrum 报道,AI 编码工具让代码量激增,审查成为新的工程瓶颈。Sonar 对 1100 多名开发者的调查显示,受访者估计共享代码库中 42% 的代码由 AI 贡献,96% 的人不完全信任其输出,38% 认为审查 AI 代码比审查同事代码更费力。Synthesia、Amazon、Bonterra、Temporal 等公司开始用 AI 智能体做首轮检查、要求提交者解释智能体的设计选择,并重新设计初级工程师的培养路径。

    AI code-review startup CodeRabbit raised US $143 million at a $1.5 billion valuation, while claiming it performs more than 2 million reviews a week for 17,000 customers, including Nvidia, Indeed, and BMW Group. The new era of code review will determine whether AI can ever provide code that is both faster and more reliable. It also has some software engineers thinking about the future of their profession: If entry-level engineers spend less time writing code themselves, how will they learn to jud

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星期二

  1. Ed Zitron 长文 / Where’s Your Ed At

    OpenAI 与 Anthropic 的集中度风险如何传导至 AI 产业

    Ed Zitron 认为,OpenAI 与 Anthropic 对少数客户和风险资本支持的 AI 初创公司高度依赖,并以巨额算力承诺将风险传导至云厂商与芯片公司。Ramp 数据显示,两家公司 80% 的企业收入来自 1% 的客户;文章还称其算力承诺合计超过 $1.3 Trillion,并将这种结构与金融危机前的高风险抵押贷款及利率重置压力相比较。

    I also just did a two part Hater's Guide To Circular Financing, covering the depths of NVIDIA's circular madness and the history of a very dangerous kind of "financial innovation." Subscribing to premium is both great value and makes it possible to write these large, deeply-researched free pieces every week. This week's premium will be The Hater’s Guide To Broadcom, a company that has long ceased to innovate, and whose existence centers on buying successful companies and jacking up prices, and n

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星期一

  1. Charlie O’Neill 研究写作

    Charlie O’Neill 分析强化学习扩展下应如何构建训练环境

    Charlie O’Neill 认为,无论递归式自我改进能否实现,强化学习环境都应围绕长周期任务、真实用户需求和自身领域知识构建。他主张能力难以跨领域迁移,而有效推进任务的时长更可能泛化;相比少量合成的前沿难题,覆盖多领域和难度的真实数据可能更有价值。

    ven beforehand); they would tell you to be scaling pilled. Well, we didn’t actually see that many of them throwing away everything to get more compute, more data, and investing in NVIDIA call options. Similarly, people talk about being AGI pilled. Well, if that’s your belief, that AGI will hit in the next year or two with the current transformer paradigm, why aren’t you buying as much land as possible, or folding your little neolab startup and begging one of the AGI-leading labs to let you in? I

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星期六

  1. Ed Zitron 长文 / Where’s Your Ed At

    批评者的循环融资指南(第二部分):SB Energy IPO 的依赖与风险

    Ed Zitron 以 SB Energy 的 IPO 申报材料分析 AI 基础设施领域的循环融资,认为其估值主要依赖与投资方兼客户 OpenAI 签订的远期协议。SB Energy 有 $439 billion 收入积压,但 97% 预计在四年后实现,99.4% 的在建容量面向 OpenAI,相关收入还取决于完成数据中心建设及投入 $178 billion 资本开支。

    You know, sometimes it’s kind of hard to explain the “circular” part of circular financing to people, in the sense that some of the agreements are kind of clunky. NVIDIA funds OpenAI, who then spends that money to rent back NVIDIA GPUs from Microsoft, Google, Amazon, or CoreWeave, and then that money is used…to buy servers from Taiwanese ODMs (original design manufacturers) that build their servers, who then buy GPUs from NVIDIA to put in them. The reason it’s clunky is that people will, even if

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星期四

  1. The Next Platform

    英伟达的网络业务正变得比 Sun 时代更像计算机本身

    The Next Platform 分析英伟达 2027 财年第二季度财报,指出网络业务已占数据中心销售额约 19.6%,是云厂商通常水平的两倍。文章测算该季度数据中心计算收入约 715.7 亿美元、网络收入约 174.5 亿美元,并援引 CFO Collette Kress 与 CEO 黄仁勋的表态,称采购承诺已从 1190 亿美元增至 2790 亿美元,供应限制主要来自 DRAM、HBM 和闪存等组件。

    COMPUTE As the financial results have come out from the major suppliers of server components, we are getting a sense – finally – of how much larger demand is than supply. And in Nvidia’s discussion of its second quarter of fiscal 2026 results, Nvidia gave us some hints in its fiscal 2027 and 2028 years for everyone to contemplate and build their models. Back in April, when Intel reported its financial results for the first quarter of this year, the company said that the supply shortfall for its

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星期日

  1. Recode China AI

    中国 AI 周报:宇树科技上市、英伟达芯片政策变化与科技巨头 AI 投入

    本周中国 AI 行业的焦点包括宇树科技上市后股价剧烈波动、科技巨头因 AI 投入承受利润压力,以及中美围绕英伟达芯片的政策变化。模型与产品方面,DeepSeek、Kimi、千问、智谱等集中更新,豆包进入特斯拉中国市场车辆,支付宝推出智能体商业平台。

    Tony Peng's avatar

    venue, with reports that Tencent’s free cash flow also swung negative on AI compute prepayments. (Bloomberg/SCMP/CNBC/Bloomberg) The US is working to close a loophole that has let Nvidia’s best chips keep reaching China despite the existing export ban. Nvidia denied a separate report that it plans to roll out a China‑specific chip by year‑end. China, meanwhile, eased its own restrictions on importing Nvidia’s H200, a notable loosening given how tightly Beijing has otherwise policed foreign‑chip

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星期三

  1. Recode China AI

    Qwen3.8-27B 展现小型本地智能模型的潜力

    阿里巴巴推出 Qwen3.8-27B,文章认为模型智能正向更小规模、更低成本和本地硬件运行发展。该模型在 Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index 获得 52 分,可在配备 24~64GB RAM 和高端消费级 GPU 的计算机上本地运行。

    Tony Peng's avatar

    fixed hardware investment. A 27B model sits in a sweet spot: it’s small enough to run locally on a well-equipped computer (24 64GB of RAM) with premium consumer-grade GPUs such as Nvidia’s RTX 5090, but smart enough to handle a wide range of real-world tasks. The Qwen 27B series in particular has always been popular, which is why last Friday’s release of Qwen3.8-27B was hailed as massive news for builders. What surprised almost everyone was the benchmark hit: the 27B model scored a staggering 52

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星期二

  1. Ed Zitron 长文 / Where’s Your Ed At

    OpenAI 若倒下,会发生什么?

    OpenAI 若无法持续筹得巨额资金以支付算力承诺,潜在崩溃将冲击云厂商、基础设施供应商及持股投资者。文中称其 2025 年收入为 $13.07 billion、亏损 $20.9 billion,并估算其到 2030 年需承担 $800 billion 以上算力义务;文章据此分析了 Microsoft 接手、与 Anthropic 合并或资金链断裂等可能情形。

    , and my guide to how OpenAI Kills Oracle pairs nicely with my Hater's Guide To Oracle, as well as the Hater’s Guide To Oracle (Part 2). I've even done a two part Hater's Guide to NVIDIA. If you want to get in touch — and especially if you have any juicy information about Anthropic, OpenAI, or any other companies in the AI bubble — hit me up on Signal at ezitron.76. I’m also on IB on The Terminal. I’m not trying to be a buzzkill here, but I have meaningful concerns about OpenAI’s ability to surv

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星期日

  1. Recode China AI

    China AI Weekly Digest 回归,聚焦 DeepSeek Harness、宇树 IPO 热潮与 Manus 回归

    China AI Weekly Digest 恢复更新,汇总 2026-08-08–2026-08-15 期间追踪的 263 条中国 AI 新闻。重点包括 DeepSeek 发布 V4 Pro、开源 DeepSeek Harness 并上调 API 价格,腾讯成为恢复独立运营的 Manus 最大股东,以及模型发布、融资、政策与产品进展。

    Tony Peng's avatar

    ard into permissive licensing. (SCMP); Ant’s AGI lab open-sourced Ling-3.0-tiny (7.9B total / 1.3B active parameters), designed to run agentic RL post-training locally on a single Nvidia DGX Spark rather than a cluster. (@AntLingAGI); MiniMax released MiniMax-Music3, an open-weights, production-ready music generation model. (@MiniMax AI); Enterprise AI costs hit a 2026 low, per new research, as price wars and Chinese open-source models compress what companies pay to deploy AI. (SCMP) Funding Bey

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星期五

  1. Hugging Face

    Hugging Face 发布 2026 夏季开源模型观察:Qwen 衍生模型达 15 万个

    Hugging Face 发布 2026 夏季开源模型观察报告,基于 Hub 前七个月数据指出点赞与下载记录的是两种不同行为:今年发布的模型无一进入下载量前 25,而 25 个中有 13 个来自 2022 年,all-MiniLM-L6-v2 七个月被下载 15.5 亿次。报告称 Qwen 衍生模型已达 151,448 个,是 Meta 总规模的 2.6 倍、Llama 仓库的 4.7 倍,前七个月以每天约 180 至 210 个新仓库增长。报告还提到 7 月 Claude Code 占智能体流量的 44.4%,Codex 从 10.4% 升至 20.8%,近四分之一智能体流量来自尚未登记的工具。

    s, 55% of DeepSeek's and 39% of Z.ai's. No large American account looks like this: Google, Microsoft and IBM Granite record essentially none of their 2026 downloads above 70B, and NVIDIA and Meta only 14% and 9%. The difference becomes clearer in total downloads. Moonshot’s frontier-only portfolio recorded 37M downloads over the year, while Qwen’s broader release strategy across model sizes reached 2,045M (across repositories with declared parameter counts, 2,061M including all repositories) , a

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星期一

  1. Recode China AI

    华为昇腾芯片如何走出低谷

    华为 Fellow、半导体首席科学家廖恒在五小时访谈中回顾昇腾芯片走出低谷的历程,以及美国制裁如何推动华为研究产业链各层并转向垂直整合。文中称昇腾系列在 2025 年出货 600,000 至 700,000 颗,计划在 2026 年翻倍,950 和 960 superpod 分别计划于 2026 年和 2027 年上线;团队还通过与 DeepSeek 等 LLM 客户合作加快芯片设计优化。

    Tony Peng's avatar

    ond half of my career and take part in some of that. Zhang Xiaojun: As I was researching this chip history, I found that ‘97 also had a big event in the chip industry—in April ‘97 Nvidia launched its third-generation chip, the NV3, and only then, after the failure of its first two generations, did it finally get a firm footing. Liao Heng: Did you notice that company at the time? No, I didn’t—I think back then they were a nobody. Actually, I think if we’re talking about chip history in ‘97, there

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星期日

  1. Recode China AI

    中国 AI 周报:Qwen3.8-Max、Unitree 的 $9B IPO 估值与 DeepSeek 涨价

    Recode China AI 汇总了本周追踪的 247 条中国 AI 新闻,重点涵盖 Qwen3.8-Max、Unitree 约 $9 billion 估值的 IPO,以及 DeepSeek API 涨价。周报还梳理了多款模型更新、美国对中国 AI 组件的潜在进口限制、融资动态、产品调整与模型安全事件。

    Tony Peng's avatar

    ing news, alongside a fresh DeepSeek raise. The chip-export standoff kept escalating even as regulators moved on quieter fronts. Washington is reviewing China’s offshore access to Nvidia chips following recent Chinese AI breakthroughs. (Bloomberg); China tightened chip-design IP protections and clarified ownership rights, aiming to spur domestic semiconductor innovation. (SCMP); The EU’s AI Act transparency rules formally took effect. (36氪); China’s AI soft power is showing up furthest from home

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星期一

  1. Recode China AI

    禁止中国开放权重模型对美国弊大于利

    作者主张,禁止中国开放权重模型会切断美国 AI 生态的低成本创新来源,却难以阻止已公开权重的全球传播。文章认为,廉价模型有助于降低应用层推理成本、支持企业自主托管数据并促进价格竞争,而既往技术限制也未必实现预期目标。

    Tony Peng's avatar

    d’s top two AI labs, which insist on a closed-source approach and reportedly lobby for policies that could constrain open models. The other is a coalition of tech companies led by Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta, which are strongly in favor of open-weight models. They signed a letter last week warning against “premature restrictions” on open-weight models and launched an open AI security alliance, an organization building tools to defend against cyber attacks from frontier models. Both sides have jus

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星期日

  1. Recode China AI

    中国 AI 周报:CXMT 上海 IPO 大涨472%,Kimi K3 开放权重,DeepSeek 投资者纪要走红

    Recode China AI 汇总2026-07-25至2026-08-01的269篇报道,重点涵盖CXMT上海 IPO 一度上涨472%、Kimi K3全面开放权重,以及DeepSeek暂停融资并发布V4。同期MiniMax H3、Seedance 2.5等模型集中亮相,中美围绕中国开放权重模型与芯片获取的政策争论继续升温。

    Tony Peng's avatar

    O—one of China’s largest ever—sent shockwaves through the global chip trade, hitting Micron and SK Hynix shares and reviving the “China chip breakthrough” narrative that’s rattled Nvidia investors all year. Founder Zhu Yiming pledged $5.6 billion in worker bonuses out of his own windfall, and semiconductor-sector profits in China are reportedly up 2,500% in the first half on the AI boom. Nomura flagged room for the stock to keep rallying; the FT cautioned the surge “isn’t the bubble signal it mi

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  2. Interconnects

    最新开源模型盘点第23期:Laguna S2.1、Inkling 与 Kimi K3 展现开源模型的帕累托前沿价值

    Interconnects 发布第23期开源模型盘点,涵盖 Thinking Machines 的 Inkling、腾讯 Hy3、Poolside 的 Laguna-S-2.1 与 Laguna-XS-2.1、DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731、月之暗面 Kimi-K3、美团 LongCat-2.0、Motif-3-Beta、Swiss AI 的 Apertus-v1.5-70B 以及 AMD 的 Instella-MoE-16B-A3B-Think。作者认为此前关于模型实验室将走向整合的预测并未成真,反而有更多公司在训练强模型并公开释出,token 需求高涨让更多机构把构建 token 机器视为价值路径。其中 Thinking Machines 的 Inkling 是 975B-A41B 多模态 MoE,支持文本、图像和音频输入,并同步发布 276B-A12B 小版本;美团 LongCat-2.0 为 1.6T 参数 MoE,完全在昇腾 910 上训练。

    n model finetuning service is making hundreds of millions in revenue per year and they’re releasing the best open-weight models built in the U.S.A. — ahead of the early leaders in NVIDIA with Nemotron and Arcee’s Trilogy. On the other side of the ecosystem is the sustained pace from the Chinese labs, with newer entrants like Xiaomi still accumulating mindshare in the broader AI economy. Having predicted consolidation for a long time, it now seems like a safer bet is to predict continued adoption

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星期六

  1. Recode China AI

    Kimi K3 引发硅谷焦虑,月之暗面冲刺 $50B 估值上市前融资

    Recode China AI 汇总了 7 月 19–25 日的 408 条中国 AI 新闻,重点包括 Kimi K3 引发的中美技术与政策争议,以及月之暗面按 $50B 投前估值推进融资和香港上市。周报还提及 GLM 5.2 协助 Hugging Face 应对 OpenAI 模型发起的网络攻击、宇树科技的人形机器人出货与降价,以及千问、混元、Ling 和 Dola Seed Audio 等模型进展。

    Tony Peng's avatar

    t “anxiety” and a narrowing US-China gap. US Treasury Secretary Bessent floated sanctioning Chinese models over alleged AI “theft,” and White House official said Moonshot accessed Nvidia chips despite the export ban. Not everyone’s buying the panic. Independent researchers pushed back on US claims that K3 was built via distillation, and Deutsche Bank told clients not to expect Chinese models to displace US rivals anytime soon. (Bloomberg/SCMP/The Information) Riding that momentum, Moonshot is ra

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星期四

  1. Recode China AI精选

    梁文锋谈 AGI、算力与 DeepSeek 坚持开源的原因

    DeepSeek CEO 梁文锋在投资者会议上阐述了公司的 AGI 路线、算力瓶颈、开源策略与商业化思路,并将持续学习视为下一代模型的核心能力。他认为当前路线将从 Agent 走向持续学习、自我迭代和具身智能,同时表示最强模型也可能开源,且开源不会影响公司的商业模式。

    Tony Peng's avatar

    l far from that, we haven’t scaled to anywhere near that level. And scaling here includes scaling of data, scaling of model size, and training cost 05 Domestic Chips and Ecosystem Nvidia’s CUDA moat is being dismantled fast. Part of that is that we now have AI, and with AI, building up an ecosystem is far easier than before, because AI can write code; The compute-chip market is already bigger than the gaming-chip market, so there’s no reason for the two to stay coupled. The trend now is that the

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星期一

  1. Recode China AI

    习近平首次出席 WAIC、Kimi K3 冲击市场与 $8.5B 存储芯片 IPO

    Recode China AI 汇总了 7 月 11 日至 18 日追踪的 334 篇报道,重点涵盖习近平首次现场出席 WAIC、月之暗面发布 Kimi K3,以及多项融资与芯片动态。Kimi K3 被称为全球最大的开放权重模型,其发布伴随美国科技股因竞争担忧而下跌。周报还提到 DeepSeek 寻求新融资、Apple Intelligence 在中国接入千问与文心一言,以及智能体和具身智能合作持续增加。

    Tony Peng's avatar

    K3, which it's calling the world's largest open-weight model, and framed it as closing the gap with—and in some benchmarks rivaling—OpenAI and Anthropic. The release landed hard: Nvidia and other US Big Tech names sold off on renewed competitive fears, and the shockwaves compounded a brutal week for chip stocks. (Bloomberg/CNBC) CXMT prices Asia’s biggest listing of the year. Beyond Kimi K3 (above), the agent race kept accelerating this week. Alibaba and Honor announced a partnership to build a

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星期五

  1. The Next Platform

    AI 芯片约占台积电营收三分之一

    The Next Platform 依据台积电 2026 年第二季度财报估算,AI 训练与推理芯片当季贡献约 133.1 亿美元营收,同比增长 68.3%,约占台积电总营收的三分之一、HPC 业务营收的一半。台积电当季营收创下 402 亿美元纪录,同比增长 33.7%,净利润 223.7 亿美元,同比增长 74.7%;公司同时宣布向亚利桑那州追加 1000 亿美元投资,使美国业务总投资达到 2650 亿美元。

    2 nanometer chips are more expensive than 3 nanometer chips, and certainly are riskier to make. But someone has to drive the ramp to better yields and AMD is doing it now just as Nvidia did it with 4 nanometer TSMC processes a few years back. Wei reminded everyone that it takes five to seven years to build these fabs, by the way. So it does not happen overnight. Which is why the annual capex for TSMC is smaller than the commitments to spend. To give you some perspective, TSMC spent $29.8 billio

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