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星期三

  1. One Useful Thing

    Ethan Mollick:给 AI 做一场面试,而不是只看基准分数

    Ethan Mollick 认为,公开基准存在题目泄漏、含义不明和未校准等问题,无法衡量写作、共情或商业判断等能力,因此个人可以用"氛围测试"感受模型差异,企业则应像招聘一样对 AI 做严格面试。他以 GuacaDrone 无人机送鳄梨酱的点子让多个模型各打分十次,发现模型内部评分相当一致,但模型之间差异明显,Grok 和 Microsoft Copilot 更看好,GPT-5 和 Claude 4.5 更怀疑,这种 3 到 4 分的系统性偏差在规模化使用时会持续影响决策方向。他建议企业用真实业务场景反复测试、由专家评估并横向比较模型,而且每年需多次重做。

    for many tests, the actual top score may be unachievable because there are many errors in the test questions and measures are often reported in unusual ways. Every benchmark has flaws, but they are all trending the same way - up and to the right. The AIME is a hard math exam, GPQA tests scientific and legal knowledge, the MMLU is a general knowledge test, SWE-bench and LiveBench test coding, Terminal-Bench tests agentic ability. Data from Epoch AI . Despite these issues, all of these benchmarks,

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星期四

  1. SemiAnalysis精选

    又一次巨大飞跃:NVIDIA Rubin CPX 专用加速器与机架

    NVIDIA 推出面向推理 prefill 阶段的 Rubin CPX,以更高算力占比和低成本内存减少 HBM 与 NVLink 资源浪费。单芯片提供 20 PFLOPS 稠密 FP4 算力、128GB GDDR7 和 2TB/s 带宽,并通过 PCIe Gen 6 联网。该产品将用于固定配置的 VR200 NVL144 CPX 或更灵活的 Vera Rubin CPX 双机架方案。

    e-up size just like the VR200 NVL144) can lean on Anthropic’s demand to codesign and gain adoption for their inference workloads. There will be major time to market challenges for AWS for its VR 144 CPX due to the fact that their 1U compute tray is already tightly integrated and packed with 4 large Rubin GPU packages and 8 CPX GPU packages leaving no space to add AWS’s custom EFA NICs into the compute tray. Amazon does not want to use ConnectX-9. AWS LOVES EFA! We believe that they will continue

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星期四

  1. Shunyu Yao:Blog

    姚顺雨:AI 进入后半场,评估比训练更重要

    姚顺雨在博客中提出 AI 已进入后半场,重心将从开发新训练方法与模型转向定义问题,评估变得比训练更重要。他认为 RL 终于能泛化,语言预训练提供的先验、把推理加入动作空间以及环境三者构成了通用配方,使基准被标准化攻克。由此他提出效用问题,指出评估假设与真实世界存在差异,例如评估默认自动运行且任务独立同分布,而现实中智能体需与人持续交互、任务按顺序累积。

    yond the working recipe. It is hard because humans have inertia and seldom question basic assumptions - you just take them for granted without realizing they are assumptions, not laws. To explain inertia, suppose you invented one of the most successful evals in history based on human exams. It was an extremely bold idea in 2021, but 3 years later it’s saturated. What would you do? Most likely create a much harder exam. Or suppose you solved simply coding tasks. What would you do? Most likely fin

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星期一

  1. Sam Altman Blog

    Sam Altman 谈 AI 经济学的三项观察与 AGI 的社会影响

    Sam Altman 提出 AI 经济学的三项观察,认为模型智能随训练与推理资源投入增长,同等智能水平的使用成本约每 12 个月下降 10x,而智能提升带来的社会经济价值呈超指数增长。OpenAI 正开始推出最终可充当虚拟同事的 AI 智能体,但仍需大量人工监督和指导。文章还讨论了 AGI 对科学进步、商品价格、就业形态及资本与劳动权力平衡的潜在影响,并主张扩大个人对技术的控制与收益分配。

    esources are chiefly training compute, data, and inference compute. It appears that you can spend arbitrary amounts of money and get continuous and predictable gains; the scaling laws that predict this are accurate over many orders of magnitude. 2. The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and lower prices lead to much more use. You can see this in the token cost from GPT-4 in early 2023 to GPT-4o in mid-2024, where the price per token dropped about 150x in that time p

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星期五

  1. METR Blog精选

    METR:AI 模型在公开部署前就可能带来危险

    METR 发文指出,当前前沿实验室的安全政策多聚焦部署前测试,但模型在公开部署前就可能带来风险,包括模型权重被窃取滥用、实验室员工内部滥用,以及 AI 智能体在训练或内部使用中自主追求非预期目标。文章建议把重心转向更早的能力测试与预测、模型权重安全与内部监控、以及透明披露和举报人保护等政策。

    lopment of powerful AI, and would like to see more work on fleshing out and implementing these policies. ↩ For examples of recent work in this area, see the observational scaling laws described in Ruan, Maddison, and Hashimoto 2024 or the test-time compute scaling laws of Snell et al 2024 . ↩ In the same way that responsibly disclosing zero-day exploits does not mean immediately announcing the exploits as they are discovered, responsible disclosure does not necessarily mean immediately announcin

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星期五

  1. vLLM 官方博客

    vLLM 2024 年回顾与 2025 年愿景

    vLLM 回顾了 2024 年的社区与技术进展,并提出面向 2025 年的推理扩展、生产部署和开放架构路线。其 GitHub stars 从 14,000 增至 32,600,贡献者从 190 增至 740,月下载量从 6,000 增至 27,000,支持的模型架构接近 100 种。项目还计划发布重新设计的 V1 架构,并继续推进 KV cache、MoE、长上下文、量化、推测解码和集群级部署能力。

    ction applications (e.g., powering Amazon Rufus and LinkedIn AI features). Our bi-monthly meetups have become strategic gatherings for partnerships with industry leaders like IBM, AWS, and NVIDIA, marking our progress toward becoming the universal serving solution for the open-source AI ecosystem. Read on for more details about vLLM's 2024 achievements and 2025 roadmap! This blog is based on the 16th session of the bi-weekly vLLM Office Hours. Watch the recording here. Community Contributions an

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星期二

  1. a16z:News

    a16z 创始人 Marc Andreessen 长文:AI 将拯救世界

    a16z 联合创始人 Marc Andreessen 发表长文《Why AI Will Save the World》,主张 AI 不会毁灭人类、不会摧毁社会、不会造成大规模失业,反而会带来生产力与经济繁荣。他把 AI 风险恐慌类比为历史上的技术道德恐慌,用 Baptists 与 Bootleggers 框架批评监管推动者,并称唯一真实风险是中国取得全球 AI 主导地位,主张美国全力加速 AI 发展、放开开源与创业竞争。

    w era of heightened material prosperity across the planet; Scientific breakthroughs and new technologies and medicines will dramatically expand, as AI helps us further decode the laws of nature and harvest them for our benefit; The creative arts will enter a golden age, as AI-augmented artists, musicians, writers, and filmmakers gain the ability to realize their visions far faster and at greater scale than ever before; I even think AI is going to improve warfare, when it has to happen, by reduci

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