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星期二

  1. Benedict Evans:Blog

    Benedict Evans:AI 的夏天,LLM 是技术而非产品

    Benedict Evans 撰文指出,ChatGPT 两个月达到 1 亿用户,但多数人试用一两次后不再回来,过去 9-12 个月活跃用户增长有限。他认为 LLM 本身不是产品,而是需要被拆解重组为新的交互方式和工具的技术,企业侧目前仍以试点为主,例如 Accenture 去年宣布的 3 亿美元生成式 AI 业务对应 300 个项目。他同时提到 Morgan Stanley 的 CIO 调查显示 30% 的大公司 CIO 预计 2026 年前不会部署任何相关应用。

    ot looks like a product. You type something in and you get magic back! But the magic might not be useful, in that form, and it might be wrong. It looks like product, but it isn’t. Microsoft’s failed and forgotten attempt to bolt this onto Bing and take on Google at the beginning of last year is a good microcosm of the problem. LLMs look like better databases, and they look like search, but, as we’ve seen since, they’re ‘wrong’ enough, and the ‘wrong’ is hard enough to manage, that you can’t just

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星期四

  1. Benedict Evans:Blog

    Apple Intelligence 与 AI 极简主义:Benedict Evans 解析苹果的生成式 AI 策略

    Benedict Evans 分析 Apple Intelligence 策略:苹果自建基础模型但不提供聊天机器人,将 LLM 抽象为 API 调用,嵌入系统功能中。苹果区分“上下文模型”与“世界模型”,前者利用设备端用户数据驱动功能,后者将开放性问题交给 ChatGPT 等第三方处理。Evans 认为苹果将生成式 AI 视为商品化技术而非产品,其杠杆在于拥有十亿级平台和用户上下文。

    s to your context if you use Android, but that’s a distinct minority in the USA (while even less of the Android base than the iPhone base would be able to do any of this locally). Microsoft’s AI PCs have some of this context, especially for a work context, but the smartphone is the primary device with all the real context for most people now, not the PC. Does Meta have that context? Some of it, maybe. There will be an interesting anti-trust conversation here, at some point. But the point of leve

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星期日

  1. Benedict Evans:Blog

    Benedict Evans:如何围绕会出错的 LLM 构建 AI 产品

    Benedict Evans 以自己用 ChatGPT 4o 查询印度签证流程却得到错误答案为例,指出 LLM 不是数据库,无法保证精确事实性回答,这是概率系统而非确定性系统。他认为解决路径有两种:一是等待模型变强(RAG、多智能体),二是把它当作产品问题,通过限定领域、定制 UI 或把模型抽象为后台功能来构建产品。

    g at this on another axis: with any new technology, we begin by trying to make it fit the problems we already have, while the incumbents try to make it a feature (hence Google and Microsoft spraying LLMs all over their products in the last year). Then startups use it to unbundle the incumbents (to unbundle search, Oracle or Email), but meanwhile, other startups try to work out what we could build that would be truly native to the new technology. That comes in stages. First, Flickr had an iPhone

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星期二

  1. Prime Intellect

    Prime Intellect 谈全球分布式训练的最新技术

    Prime Intellect 发布文章,探讨如何在全球分布式 GPU 集群上训练大模型,以应对闭源阵营动辄数十万块 H100 的算力优势。文章梳理了数据并行、张量并行、流水线并行三种基础方法,并重点介绍 Google DeepMind 的 DiLoCo:每 500 步才同步一次梯度,把 1B 模型 2GB 梯度的 16 秒通信摊到数分钟计算中,同时提升对异构硬件和节点增减的容错能力。

    State-of-the-Art in Globally-Distributed Training

    00) chips in one server (connected with NVLink) + comparatively high network bandwidth of 500Mb/s - 100Gb/s; As a close reference for this claim, a paper called Varuna released by Microsoft in 2022 demonstrates how to scale distributed training across 100+ spot instances for models with up to 200B parameters (without InfiniBand connections): Unlike Google's proprietary efforts, SWARM parallelism is open-source, allowing anyone to begin distributed training across clusters. Although it is primari

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星期一

  1. Microsoft AI Blog

    微软 AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman:AI 究竟是什么?

    微软 AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman 提出用“新的数字物种”这一隐喻来理解 AI 的发展方向,并给出他对 AI 未来的新愿景。该内容随后是与 TED 负责人 Chris Anderson 的问答。

    FB When it comes to artificial intelligence, what are we actually creating? Even those closest to its development are struggling to describe exactly where things are headed, says Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman, one of the primary architects of the AI models many of us use today. He offers an honest and compelling new vision for the future of AI, proposing an unignorable metaphor — a new digital species — to focus attention on this extraordinary moment. (Followed by a Q&A with head of TED Chr

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星期日

  1. Benedict Evans:Blog

    AI 伦理的问题——Benedict Evans

    Benedict Evans 以英国邮局富士通系统冤案为例指出,AI 伦理与 AI 监管面临的核心难题是抽象层级错误:不同场景的 AI 应用(假释、房贷、内容审核、药物研发)是完全不同的问题,不存在一个能覆盖所有情况的伦理领域或统一监管法律。他同时提到 Google Gemini 争议,并强调生成式 AI 的形态连业内都难以预测,立法需要保持谦逊。

    a SQL regulator, and the same point applies when we read that FTX had a spreadsheet with eight different balance sheets. We don’t call for a spreadsheet regulator, and demand that Microsoft stop this from happening again. That would be the wrong level of abstraction. This, I think, is the challenging in talking about ‘AI Ethics’, or in writing laws to regulate ‘AI’. There are lots of ways that bad people can do bad things with software, and there are lots of ways that people can screw up with so

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星期二

  1. a16z:News

    a16z 创始人 Marc Andreessen 长文:AI 将拯救世界

    a16z 联合创始人 Marc Andreessen 发表长文《Why AI Will Save the World》,主张 AI 不会毁灭人类、不会摧毁社会、不会造成大规模失业,反而会带来生产力与经济繁荣。他把 AI 风险恐慌类比为历史上的技术道德恐慌,用 Baptists 与 Bootleggers 框架批评监管推动者,并称唯一真实风险是中国取得全球 AI 主导地位,主张美国全力加速 AI 发展、放开开源与创业竞争。

    an afford them. This is precisely what is already happening in AI – it’s why you can use state of the art generative AI not just at low cost but even for free today in the form of Microsoft Bing and Google Bard – and it is what will continue to happen. Not because such vendors are foolish or generous but precisely because they are greedy – they want to maximize the size of their market, which maximizes their profits. So what happens is the opposite of technology driving centralization of wealth

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星期四

  1. a16z:News

    a16z 发布 AI Canon:现代 AI 必读资源精选清单

    a16z 发布“AI Canon”精选资源清单,汇集过去几年对 AI 领域影响最大的论文、博客、课程与指南。清单从 Transformer 与潜在扩散模型入门讲起,延伸到 LLM 技术学习、实践指南与 AI 市场分析,并收录以 2017 年 Google 论文《Attention is All You Need》为起点的里程碑研究。

    ng development timeline, size, training strategies, training data, hardware, and more; Sparks of artificial general intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4: Early analysis from Microsoft Research on the capabilities of GPT-4, the current most advanced LLM, relative to human intelligence; The AI revolution: How Auto-GPT unleashes a new era of automation and creativity: An introduction to Auto-GPT and AI agents in general. This technology is very early but important to understand—it uses intern

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星期四

  1. Lilian Weng:Lil'Log

    Lilian Weng 综述广义语言模型:从 CoVe、ELMo 到 GPT-2、BERT

    Lilian Weng 在 Lil'Log 发布《Generalized Language Models》综述,梳理了让词嵌入依赖上下文并更易迁移到下游任务的各类方法。文章从 CoVe 的 NMT 编码器上下文词向量讲起,重点介绍 ELMo 通过无监督双向语言模型(biLM)预训练学习上下文表示,并指出 OpenAI GPT 与 BERT 进一步用无监督预训练加生成式架构同时克服 CoVe 的局限。该文后续陆续补充了 ULMFiT、GPT-2、ALBERT、RoBERTa、T5、GPT-3、XLNet、BART 和 ELECTRA。

    argument structure of a sentence, and is often described as answering “Who did what to whom”. CoNLL-2004 & CoNLL-2005 Sentence similarity: also known as paraphrase detection MRPC (MicRosoft Paraphrase Corpus): It contains pairs of sentences extracted from news sources on the web, with annotations indicating whether each pair is semantically equivalent; QQP (Quora Question Pairs) STS Benchmark: Semantic Textual Similarity Sentence Acceptability: a task to annotate sentences for grammatical accept

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