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Friday

  1. Wallstreetcn

    TS Lombard speculates the AI bubble may burst in early 2028, with U.S. tech stocks potentially plunging 40%

    In an October 22 research note, TS Lombard Chief Macro Strategist Dario Perkins projected that the AI capital expenditure boom could end in early 2028, with the S&P 500 falling 30%, tech stocks plunging 40%, and about $20 trillion in market value evaporating. The report argues that current AI revenue growth mainly comes from the capital expenditure cycle among tech giants and debt financing, and lists six chain-reaction triggers: revenue falling short of expectations, rising credit risk, depreciation pressure, an IPO wave, the semiconductor cycle, and regulatory and safety concerns. The report estimates that U.S. GDP would fall by about 2 percentage points and about 800,000 data center-related jobs would be lost, but private-sector balance sheets are healthy and the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut rates, making the recession closer to those of 1990 or 2001 than to 2008.

    In an October 22 research note, TS Lombard Chief Macro Strategist Dario Perkins projected that the AI capital expenditure boom could end in early 2028, with the S&P 500 falling 30%, tech stocks plunging 40%, and about $20 trillion in market value evaporating. The report argues that current AI revenue growth mainly comes from the capital expenditure cycle among tech giants and debt financing, and lists six chain-reaction triggers: revenue falling short of expectations, rising credit risk, depreci

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    #chinese#English text is being prepared.#Industry news#English text is being prepared.

Thursday

  1. Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust

    Gary Marcus: US Banks Are Under Attack by AI Agents

    Gary Marcus, citing an Axios report, said that US banks are tightening system access permissions due to AI agent attacks, and that bank executives are alarmed by these findings. He also mentioned that the attack on France's refrigeration system on October 11 may have been facilitated by agents, as well as the continuously increasing cybersecurity attacks in Japan. He believes that attackers do not need the most advanced frontier models to cause damage, and therefore regulation should not focus only on frontier models and future risks.

    Gary Marcus, citing an Axios report, said that US banks are tightening system access permissions due to AI agent attacks, and that bank executives are alarmed by these findings. He also mentioned that the attack on France's refrigeration system on October 11 may have been facilitated by agents, as well as the continuously increasing cybersecurity attacks in Japan. He believes that attackers do not need the most advanced frontier models to cause damage, and therefore regulation should not focus o

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    #analysis#Safety / alignment#Agents#Industry news
  2. Huxiu

    Anthropic IPO Draft Prospectus Revealed: $16.3 Billion in Revenue, $80.7 Billion Net Loss in Half a Year

    Anthropic's draft IPO prospectus shows $16.3 billion in revenue and a net loss of $80.7 billion in the first half of 2026, of which $72 billion comes from the revaluation of financing instruments such as convertible notes and is not actual cash spending. Computing and infrastructure spending in the first half of the year was nearly $9 billion, about 55% of revenue, down from more than 200% in the same period last year, and the company had already begun to be profitable on an adjusted basis in the third quarter. The article points out that the real risk lies on the cost side: signed forward computing and infrastructure commitments exceed $600 billion and could reach as high as $750 billion; Reuters said that of the $518 billion at the time, about 80% was irrevocable or required minimum payments, while of the $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, more than $3.2 billion came from just two major customers, and many major customers had not signed long-term purchase commitments.

    Anthropic's draft IPO prospectus shows $16.3 billion in revenue and a net loss of $80.7 billion in the first half of 2026, of which $72 billion comes from the revaluation of financing instruments such as convertible notes and is not actual cash spending. Computing and infrastructure spending in the first half of the year was nearly $9 billion, about 55% of revenue, down from more than 200% in the same period last year, and the company had already begun to be profitable on an adjusted basis in th

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    #hot-signal#Industry news#English text is being prepared.#English text is being prepared.
  3. Shao Meng

    Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella's 2026 Annual Letter to Shareholders: Mapping Token Costs to Business Outcomes, Building a Frontier Ecosystem

    In his 2026 annual letter to shareholders, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella proposed building a frontier ecosystem and introduced cost-to-outcome—the business results obtained per unit of token spend—as a new optimization metric. In fiscal year 2026, Microsoft's revenue reached $331.8 billion, up 18% year over year; Azure grew 41%, surpassing $100 billion for the first time; M365 Copilot paid seats exceeded 30 million, and GitHub Copilot users reached 50 million. The letter states that interaction is shifting from synchronous chat to asynchronous agents, with the harness separated from the model; Foundry offers more than 11,000 models and has over 100,000 customers, and Microsoft Frontier Co. was established, deploying 6,000 experts on-site.

    In his 2026 annual letter to shareholders, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella proposed building a frontier ecosystem and introduced cost-to-outcome—the business results obtained per unit of token spend—as a new optimization metric. In fiscal year 2026, Microsoft's revenue reached $331.8 billion, up 18% year over year; Azure grew 41%, surpassing $100 billion for the first time; M365 Copilot paid seats exceeded 30 million, and GitHub Copilot users reached 50 million. The letter states that interaction is

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    #hot-signal#English text is being prepared.#Agents#Reasoning
  4. Phoenix Technology

    Anthropic CEO Dario Responds to Safety Concerns in a Long Post, Reveals High-End Model Was Held Back for Four Months

    Anthropic CEO Dario posted a long message on X responding to questions from AI safety investigator Nathan Calvin, disclosing for the first time that the company had already trained a high-end model at the Mythos level as early as February this year. Because its cybersecurity defense mechanisms were not yet complete, it was released only to a very small number of partners, and was not opened to the public until the safety guardrails were in place in June—about four months in total. He also listed the costs the company has proactively borne for safety, including a large number of false positives caused by biological risk filtering, pushing for legislation such as California SB 53, and a plan to commit 5% of the company's shares to a public interest fund. Dario said this approach amounts to competing toward a higher standard, while Calvin questioned how much more the company can concede in the race for the sake of safety.

    Anthropic CEO Dario posted a long message on X responding to questions from AI safety investigator Nathan Calvin, disclosing for the first time that the company had already trained a high-end model at the Mythos level as early as February this year. Because its cybersecurity defense mechanisms were not yet complete, it was released only to a very small number of partners, and was not opened to the public until the safety guardrails were in place in June—about four months in total. He also listed

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    #chinese#English text is being prepared.#Safety / alignment#Anthropic

Wednesday

  1. Latent Space

    How Claude Mods Flip Claude Code's Agent Framework into a Human-Facing Attention Interface

    Writing in Latent Space, author Dan McAteer introduces Claude Mods: TypeScript or JavaScript plugins that run inside Claude Code, respond to events such as prompts, tool calls, and interface rendering, and change execution and rendering behavior in the CLI and on desktop. Anthropic has built in six mods, including the you-should-know side agent, which is off by default; the author also built a Next Steps Supervisor on top of his own ModSmith. The article compares Claude Mods with ChatGPT's Intelligent UI and Cursor's PR Routing & Approval, noting that the difference among the three lies in who designs the attention interface, and it raises the issues of noise, a cost of roughly 5–6k input-equivalent tokens per check, and trust concerns because mods are not confined by the sandbox.

    Writing in Latent Space, author Dan McAteer introduces Claude Mods: TypeScript or JavaScript plugins that run inside Claude Code, respond to events such as prompts, tool calls, and interface rendering, and change execution and rendering behavior in the CLI and on desktop. Anthropic has built in six mods, including the you-should-know side agent, which is off by default; the author also built a Next Steps Supervisor on top of his own ModSmith. The article compares Claude Mods with ChatGPT's Intel

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    #newsletter#English text is being prepared.#Agents#English text is being prepared.
  11. Latent Space

    SF Compute CEO Evan Conrad on Programmable Data Centers and the Compute Market

    SF Compute CEO Evan Conrad said on the Latent Space podcast that the compute market must first achieve physical delivery—that is, actually delivering usable GPU compute—before discussing financialization; otherwise, market manipulation and basis risk are likely to arise. He said SF Compute has already put 5% of its capacity on the order book, and that customers who spend $100 to buy capacity can on average recover $25 by reselling it, with hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume already completed. He also said the company does not hold hardware in order to remain neutral, and that it already supports customers in partitioning InfiniBand fabric online themselves.

    SF Compute CEO Evan Conrad said on the Latent Space podcast that the compute market must first achieve physical delivery—that is, actually delivering usable GPU compute—before discussing financialization; otherwise, market manipulation and basis risk are likely to arise. He said SF Compute has already put 5% of its capacity on the order book, and that customers who spend $100 to buy capacity can on average recover $25 by reselling it, with hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume alread

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    #newsletter#Industry news#English text is being prepared.#English text is being prepared.

Tuesday

  1. One Useful Thing

    Ethan Mollick reviews 30 months of AI development in charts

    On the release day of his new book Co-Existence, Ethan Mollick used charts to review the AI progress in the 30 months since his previous book Co-Intelligence was published. He said that since GPT-4, 20 models have successively taken the top spot, and 180 models were stronger than GPT-4 at release, 19 of which can run on modern smartphones; the METR long-task benchmark showed that the amount of human work AI can complete increased from 4 minutes in 2024 to 17 hours in April 2026, and the benchmark was subsequently discontinued because it could no longer measure accurately. He proposed a third mode of collaboration beyond centaur and cyborg: conjurer, that is, summoning agents, assigning tasks, and evaluating results. The charts in this article were completed by Opus 5.5 in Claude Projects orchestrating multiple agents.

    On the release day of his new book Co-Existence, Ethan Mollick used charts to review the AI progress in the 30 months since his previous book Co-Intelligence was published. He said that since GPT-4, 20 models have successively taken the top spot, and 180 models were stronger than GPT-4 at release, 19 of which can run on modern smartphones; the METR long-task benchmark showed that the amount of human work AI can complete increased from 4 minutes in 2024 to 17 hours in April 2026, and the benchmar

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    #newsletter#English text is being prepared.#Agents#English text is being prepared.