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$1.65 Trillion in Off-Balance-Sheet Commitments and a 166-Fold Token Price Gap: Three Endgame Scenarios for the AI Capital Game
The author reviewed the financial reports of the five major U.S. tech giants and found that more than 85% of Alphabet's and Amazon's quarterly profits come from unrealized gains on equity investments; their combined off-balance-sheet long-term purchase and lease commitments total approximately $1.65 trillion, already exceeding on-balance-sheet liabilities. Capital expenditure by the five giants is projected at $769.2 billion in 2026, while annual AI application revenue is about $200 billion, leaving a gap of roughly 5 times. After comparing China-U.S. pricing, the author notes that OpenAI charges $30 per million output Tokens while DeepSeek charges only $0.18, a price gap of 166 times, and concludes that the most likely endgame is that one node runs into trouble first and the problem then propagates through the chain of cross-shareholdings.
The author reviewed the financial reports of the five major U.S. tech giants and found that more than 85% of Alphabet's and Amazon's quarterly profits come from unrealized gains on equity investments; their combined off-balance-sheet long-term purchase and lease commitments total approximately $1.65 trillion, already exceeding on-balance-sheet liabilities. Capital expenditure by the five giants is projected at $769.2 billion in 2026, while annual AI application revenue is about $200 billion, lea
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Meta's 14GW ambition and Blackstone's abandoned 22 months: AI infrastructure shifts to competing on resources and speed
Meta is expected to invest $145 billion in AI infrastructure this year, with installed capacity reaching 14GW, while Blackstone's Digital Gateway data center project, which persisted for 22 months, ultimately withdrew its appeal and was terminated. The article argues that the bottleneck of AI infrastructure has shifted from chips to power and time; globally, 57% of data center projects are delayed by more than 3 months, and only projects with ready power, customer contracts, and construction conditions can continue to attract capital investment.
Meta is expected to invest $145 billion in AI infrastructure this year, with installed capacity reaching 14GW, while Blackstone's Digital Gateway data center project, which persisted for 22 months, ultimately withdrew its appeal and was terminated. The article argues that the bottleneck of AI infrastructure has shifted from chips to power and time; globally, 57% of data center projects are delayed by more than 3 months, and only projects with ready power, customer contracts, and construction con
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OpenAI Team Responds to Computer Use Progress Doubts, Recaps One-Week Sprint on Decisions API
In a podcast after OpenAI DevDay, Ari Weinstein, who is in charge of the Computer Use agent, responded to Dwarkesh's doubts about Computer Use progressing slowly, saying it is now completely different from a few months ago because the model has become better at debugging and retrying, and can write JavaScript to execute multiple steps at once while combining screenshots, accessibility, DOM, and Playwright. He also mentioned that Dots provides each Dot with a cloud Linux virtual computer, and that Computer Use has entered the Agents API. Nikunj Handa, head of the OpenAI API team, introduced updates to GPT-6 such as asynchronous tool calling, mid-turn steering, WebSockets, UltraFast inference, prompt caching and pre-warming, and compaction, and said the Decisions API is based on Luna weights, with no new model trained, and took only about a week from the emergence of the idea to a prototype.
In a podcast after OpenAI DevDay, Ari Weinstein, who is in charge of the Computer Use agent, responded to Dwarkesh's doubts about Computer Use progressing slowly, saying it is now completely different from a few months ago because the model has become better at debugging and retrying, and can write JavaScript to execute multiple steps at once while combining screenshots, accessibility, DOM, and Playwright. He also mentioned that Dots provides each Dot with a cloud Linux virtual computer, and tha
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