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Carnegie Report: China Overtakes the US for the First Time as the Top Destination for Leading AI Talent, but Talent Still Nets Outflow

A global AI talent report released by Carnegie China on September 23 shows that in 2025, 41% of the world's top AI researchers work in China and 34% in the US, compared with 27% versus 46% three years ago. Tracking the résumés of 10,280 authors from NeurIPS 2025, the report notes a net outflow of 1,729 people from China and a net inflow of 2,145 into the US; 98% of top researchers working in China did their undergraduate studies in China, versus only about 30% in the US. Among institutions, Peking University rose to first place, with Tsinghua second and Shanghai Jiao Tong University fourth. The report also acknowledges that its sample skews toward academia and underestimates industry.

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Brookings Institution report estimates $10.3 trillion in US AI infrastructure investment over 8 years

The Brookings Institution released research by Columbia Business School professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, estimating cumulative US AI infrastructure investment from 2025 to 2032 at about $10.3 trillion, averaging 3.63% of US GDP annually, higher than the historical investment intensity of railways, highways, and fiber-optic construction. The report notes that in 2026, capital expenditure by Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet is expected to reach $800.5 billion, exceeding operating cash flow of $707.1 billion for the first time, with the gap reliant on borrowing and external financing. The report also mentions that Meta's Hyperion project has a debt-to-asset ratio of nearly 90%, large cloud providers have about $2.4 trillion in off-balance-sheet lease and purchase commitments, and IT assets such as GPUs are calculated at a 6-year economic life; if demand growth cannot keep pace with capacity expansion, this could bring pressure from declining utilization and lease prices.

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