Fireworks Offers Free Training of Muse Glimmer 30B: Using SFT to Predict Kalshi Market Outcomes
Fireworks AI announced that Muse Glimmer 30B can be trained with SFT for free until November 30, and released a complete recipe for a prediction experiment using historical Kalshi market data. The fine-tuned Glimmer achieved 58.3% accuracy on unseen topics, 11.2 percentage points higher than Jev's 47.1%; in a historical backtest, a hypothetical $1,000 grew to $1,071 after accounting for simulated fees, while both base Glimmer and Jev lost money. Training used LoRA adapters and a K-way cross-entropy loss, ran through the training data only once, and separately used a calibration set to fit a temperature parameter for each question category.
Fireworks AI announced that Muse Glimmer 30B can be trained with SFT for free until November 30, and released a complete recipe for a prediction experiment using historical Kalshi market data. The fine-tuned Glimmer achieved 58.3% accuracy on unseen topics, 11.2 percentage points higher than Jev's 47.1%; in a historical backtest, a hypothetical $1,000 grew to $1,071 after accounting for simulated fees, while both base Glimmer and Jev lost money. Training used LoRA adapters and a K-way cross-entr
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