National Energy Administration: Computing power electricity consumption to reach 800 billion kWh by 2030, electricity demand curve may face revaluation

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The three major A-share indices pulled back collectively today. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.57%, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.96%. Turnover across the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing markets was close to 1.7 trillion yuan, a sharp contraction of more than 400 billion yuan from yesterday. Most industry sectors closed lower, while dividend assets such as banks, power, railways and highways, and public utilities rose against the market. Components, communications equipment, robotics, electronic chemicals, medical services, semiconductors and gaming sectors led the declines. At the individual stock level, more than 700 stocks rose, and more than 30 stocks hit the daily limit up.

On November 6, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference in its "15th Five-Year Plan" series, briefing on the situation regarding building a solid security foundation. "During the '15th Five-Year Plan' period, driven by emerging industries such as computing power, China's electricity demand will still grow rigidly, with an expected average annual increase of about 600 billion kWh, equivalent to adding the electricity consumption of three Shanghai's each year," said Ge Ju, deputy director of the Development Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, at the press conference. Ge Ju said that to ensure power supply, China has established an early-warning mechanism for power supply adequacy, proposing that by 2030 power supply adequacy will be greater than 1.1—that is, at the peak moment of electricity load, there will still be a 10% reserve of supply capacity, ensuring that at critical moments it can "withstand the peak and hold the bottom."

Previously, according to data from the Southern Power Grid operating area, from January to October the electricity sales of 398 data centers reached 15.7 billion kWh, up 25.6% year on year; more noteworthy is the gradient rhythm of transmission along the industrial chain: electricity sales for upstream integrated circuits rose 9.8%, midstream data centers rose 25.6%, and downstream industries such as intelligent robots saw electricity sales growth as high as 61.1%, while the Shantou Overseas Chinese Pilot Zone surged 1,197.7% and has grown by more than 100% for 11 consecutive months. This structure shows that the electricity expansion of computing infrastructure is not an isolated phenomenon, but is penetrating downstream high-value-added manufacturing links, forming a composite "computing power-manufacturing" electricity increment.

This micro-level data echoes the medium- and long-term positioning of the National Energy Administration. The National Energy Administration has made clear that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, national computing power electricity consumption will increase by more than 100 billion kWh annually on average, reaching 800 billion kWh by 2030, with its share of total social electricity consumption rising from about 1.6% currently to 6%. Computing power is upgrading from a "marginal variable" of electricity demand to a "systematic source of increment," and the long-term demand curve of the power industry faces revaluation.

Shenwan Hongyuan said it expects the supply-demand pattern for new energy to improve in 2027, electricity prices to stabilize, and the industry to usher in a window of turnaround from difficulties. Xiangcai Securities pointed out that the growth of computing power load will promote the alignment of computing power layout with power source and grid planning, providing application space for green electricity trading, energy storage and energy management.

Shenwan Hongyuan: The industry is expected to usher in a window of turnaround from difficulties

With the continued implementation of supporting policies for direct green electricity connection and computing-electricity coordination, as well as the advancement of ultra-high-voltage construction, the pressure of new energy consumption is expected to ease year by year. It is expected that the supply-demand pattern for new energy will improve in 2027, electricity prices will stabilize, and the industry will usher in a window of turnaround from difficulties.

Xiangcai Securities: Growth in electricity demand gains support

The rapid growth of emerging electricity demand reflects the continued advancement of the digital economy, industrial upgrading and end-use electrification, and is expected to provide support for electricity demand growth and drive power supply and distribution facilities and energy services. The growth of computing power load will promote the alignment of computing power layout with power source and grid planning, providing application space for green electricity trading, energy storage and energy management.

Ping An Securities: Demand space for energy storage is expected to open up

During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, national computing power electricity consumption will increase by more than 100 billion kWh annually on average. With the further growth of computing power electricity demand and the gradual implementation of the direct green electricity connection model, energy storage, as an important facility for meeting the self-generation and self-consumption ratio requirements, is expected to see its demand space open up.

Guojin Securities: Electricity may serve as an advantageous dividend variety

Electricity may serve as an advantageous dividend variety. Thermal power's bottom-line profit has a dividend foundation, and the upward trend in performance and dividends is expected to make it a "new type of dividend." Nuclear power, as a direction with high performance growth among low-volatility dividend varieties, has both dividend and growth attributes.

CICC: The power equipment sector has long-term investment value

The power equipment industry's overall performance in 2026 will be steady and upward. In terms of traditional power grids, the "15th Five-Year Plan" new energy system clearly positions the grid as "adapting to a high proportion of new energy," and combined with the release of State Grid's "15th Five-Year Plan" investment plan, grid investment is promising in the long term; in addition, the pace of global AIDC infrastructure construction is accelerating, demand for related power equipment is strong, and Chinese power equipment companies are expected to win orders by virtue of advantages such as short delivery cycles, high cost-effectiveness and good after-sales service. The dawn of a global power mega-cycle is beginning to appear. The development of a new type of power system is a long-term and continuous process, and its prosperity may last until 2030. Meanwhile, the orders, revenue and profits of major listed companies remain on a solid upward trajectory. After adjustments, current valuations have entered a historically undervalued range, and the sector has long-term investment value.

Huachuang Securities: The multi-user direct green electricity connection policy opens a second channel for wind and solar beyond grid connection

The multi-user direct green electricity connection policy opens a second channel for wind and solar beyond grid connection. Operators bound to new types of loads such as computing power, zero-carbon parks and green hydrogen will benefit first; the marginal elasticity of the green electricity sector will come more from system regulation capacity and load-side binding, rather than simply from newly added installed capacity.

(This article does not constitute any investment advice. Investors who act on it bear all consequences themselves. Markets carry risks, and investment requires caution.)

(Source: East Money Research Center) Middle of the main body Embedded advertisement