Anthropic Internal Survey: Most Employees Expect AI to Complete at Least 80% of Work by 2030
Anthropic's latest research compared survey results from U.S. adults and 1,334 company employees. Most Anthropic employees expect that by 2030 at least 80% of their own work could be handed over to AI, while only about 5% of American workers share that view. Based on median estimates, Anthropic employees expect that by the end of 2030, 95% of the work required to develop new AI models could be done by AI, and they expect U.S. unemployment to exceed 12% and GDP growth to reach 17.1% by then, while U.S. adults' corresponding GDP growth expectation is 5.4%.
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The gap between Anthropic's internal survey and ordinary workers' expectations provides a reference point for how leading AI users judge employment and growth.
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Anthropic Internal Survey: Most Employees Believe AI Can Complete at Least 80% of Work by 2030
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Anthropic's latest research compared survey results from U.S. adults and 1,334 company employees. Most Anthropic employees expect that by 2030, at least 80% of their work can be handed over to AI, while only about 5% of American workers share the same view.
The research reflects a huge gap between Anthropic employees and ordinary Americans in their judgments about the future development of AI. Anthropic employees are much more optimistic about the pace of AI capability progress, the effect of saving work time, and the speed of future economic growth.
Based on the median survey results, Anthropic employees expect that by the end of 2030, 95% of the work required to develop a new AI model can be completed by AI.
Anthropic chief economist Peter McCrory believes that employees' judgments may help the outside world prepare for more advanced AI: "We published this research because Anthropic is about a year and a half ahead of the entire economy in AI adoption. In other words, the changes happening inside Anthropic may foreshadow what will happen across society next."
Anthropic also surveyed workers' use of AI and their views on AI's future impact. The research shows that U.S. adults and Anthropic employees basically have the same understanding of what AI can currently do. But the two sides differ on how fast AI will progress, how widely it will be applied, and how much time it can save and how much productivity it can improve.
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The survey shows that workers in skilled trades, production, and transportation believe that by 2030, the proportion of work AI can take over is relatively the lowest. Anthropic employees, tech industry practitioners, and respondents in business and finance expect AI to take on more work.
On the employment outlook, most Anthropic employees expect the U.S. unemployment rate to exceed 12% in 2030; most American workers believe that by then the unemployment rate will not exceed 8%, or will remain around 8%. The current U.S. unemployment rate is 4.2%.
Anthropic researchers also used questionnaire responses to infer respondents' expectations for economic growth. Based on the median, U.S. adults' corresponding 2030 GDP growth rate is 5.4%, while that of Anthropic employees is as high as 17.1%. By comparison, U.S. GDP grew 2.2% last year.