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On October 16, 2026, Anthropic published the "The AI Expectations Gap" survey, comparing the expectations of U.S. adults and Anthropic employees regarding AI. The study is based on a survey conducted in August 2026. Official evidence shows that 91% of Anthropic employees believe AI will be able to make Nobel Prize-level discoveries by 2030, compared with 39% of U.S. adults; employees expect on average that AI will be able to complete 75% of their current work by 2030, compared with 28% for employed Americans. According to the study's economic model, the median U.S. adult's responses correspond to 5.4% GDP growth in 2030, while the median employee's correspond to 17.1%. The two groups differ markedly on the share of their own work that will be replaced by AI, but both believe that the more replacement there is, the higher the unemployment rate will be. Subsequent reporting said that the two groups largely agree in their judgments of AI's current capabilities, with the divergence concentrated on the pace of technological progress and the scope of corporate adoption in the coming years; 95% of Anthropic employees still believe the company's total headcount will increase over the next 12 months, with a median expected growth of 66%. The survey has now been publicly released, with no further developments.
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- Source:Anthropic Research
Reports and discussion timeline
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Oct 20
Huxiu
Anthropic survey: employees expect AI to be able to complete 75% of their own work by 2030, while the public expects only 28%
The Anthropic Institute released "The AI Expectations Gap" on October 16, 2026. The survey shows that Anthropic employees on average expect that by 2030 AI will be able to complete tasks corresponding to 75% of their current working hours, while the average expectation among employed Americans is only 28%. The two groups broadly agree in their judgments of AI's current capabilities; the divergence is concentrated in the pace of technological progress and the scope of enterprise adoption in the coming years. For example, 90% of employees expect that by 2027 AI will be capable of designing and publishing research tasks, while only 38% of the public expects so. Despite expecting a high degree of task automation, 95% of Anthropic employees still believe the company's total headcount will increase over the next 12 months, with a median expected growth of 66%.
Oct 18
Rohan Paul
Anthropic report: Employees expect AI to handle 75% of their current work by 2030, while only 28% of the US public agrees
A new Anthropic research report shows that its employees expect AI to complete 75% of their current work by 2030, while US workers gave a figure of 28%. The expectation gap widens with task difficulty: 91% of employees believe AI will be able to make Nobel Prize-level discoveries by 2030, compared with 39% of the public.
Oct 17
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Anthropic Internal Survey: Most Employees Expect AI to Complete at Least 80% of Work by 2030
Anthropic's latest research compared survey results from U.S. adults and 1,334 company employees. Most Anthropic employees expect that by 2030 at least 80% of their own work could be handed over to AI, while only about 5% of American workers share that view. Based on median estimates, Anthropic employees expect that by the end of 2030, 95% of the work required to develop new AI models could be done by AI, and they expect U.S. unemployment to exceed 12% and GDP growth to reach 17.1% by then, while U.S. adults' corresponding GDP growth expectation is 5.4%.
Anthropic ResearchFirst-party
Anthropic study: the gap between the public's and its own employees' expectations for AI
Anthropic released a study based on an August 2026 survey comparing the AI expectations of U.S. adults and Anthropic employees: 91% of employees believe AI will be able to make Nobel Prize-level discoveries by 2030, compared with 39% of U.S. adults. On average, employees expect AI to be able to do 75% of their current work by 2030, compared with 28% for employed Americans; according to the study's economic model, the median U.S. adult's response corresponds to 5.4% GDP growth in 2030, while the median employee's corresponds to 17.1%. The two groups differ markedly on the share of their own jobs that will be replaced by AI, but both believe that the more replacement there is, the higher the unemployment rate.