ARC Prize says scores on three ARC-AGI benchmarks are strongly correlated

On October 29, 2026, ARC Prize proposed a judgment that there is a strong correlation among model scores on the three ARC-AGI benchmarks. After plotting ARC-AGI model scores, the organization found that the power curve v2 = v1^4.53 could explain about 98% of the variation in ARC-AGI-2 scores; models that were flat on ARC-AGI-1 could still differ by more than 20 percentage points on ARC-AGI-2. A similar trend also appeared on ARC-AGI-3, but the low-reasoning tier of Gemini 4 Argon was a clear exception: its ARC-AGI-2 score was only 42.1%, while its ARC-AGI-3 score reached 97.5%. There have been no subsequent developments so far.

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1. Report date Oct 29· 1 reports

   ARC Prize says the three ARC-AGI benchmark scores are strongly correlated

   Source:ARC Prize