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唐杰更新于 10月14日 22:32

你确定吗?寻找最优模型规模并不简单

Are you sure? Finding the optimal model size is tricky: data volume, active parameter count, the number of environments, and the target inference cost. Model pe

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确定最优模型规模需要综合考虑数据量、活跃参数量、环境数量和目标推理成本。模型性能还受许多其他因素影响,而每个因素都会带来各自的可变性。

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Charlie O'Neill

@oneill_c

Fable is probably ~2-2.5T parameters, not 10T. Kimi K3 is 2.8T params, trained on maybe 20–30k Blackwell-equivalents. It lands within spitting distance of Fable 5 in terms of capabilities (5, not 5.1). Anthropic has far more compute than Moonshot, better rl environments, better architecture and better optimizers and all of that adds to capability per…

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Fable is probably ~2-2.5T parameters, not 10T. Kimi K3 is 2.8T params, trained on maybe 20–30k Blackwell-equivalents. It lands within spitting distance of Fable 5 in terms of capabilities (5, not 5.1). Anthropic has far more compute than Moonshot, better rl environments, better architecture and better optimizers and all of that adds to capability per parameter. So if Fable is only slightly ahead of K3 with this in mind, it's almost certainly a smaller model. GPT-5.5 and 5.6 are smaller still (I'll say more on that later)

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Are you sure? Finding the optimal model size is tricky: data volume, active parameter count, the number of environments, and the target inference cost. Model performance also depends on many other factors, each introducing its own variability.

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