HCLTech 靠 AI 与收购撑起增长，核心业务承压

HCLTech’s September-quarter results look like an AI fairytale.

After all, Advanced AI revenue reached $219 million, up 28.4% sequentially in constant currency (CC). The IT services firm also boasted key advanced AI deals from both sides of the Atlantic Ocean—building AI operating models and an AI factory for American power and healthcare providers, and deploying agentic solutions to European financial services firms and a manufacturing company.

CEO and MD C Vijayakumar says HCLTech is “able to offset AI-driven deflation by gaining market share in our core services and through our advanced AI offerings.” The company’s disclosures show how much of the growth came from each source.

$100 Million Gain Split Three Ways

Services revenue grew 3% sequentially in CC to $3.44 billion—about $100 million of added revenue. Vijayakumar attributes roughly half of it to advanced AI and the other half to core services.

The AI half checks out. Advanced AI revenue rose about $48 million—from $171 million in the first quarter—climbing from $146 million in Q3 FY26.

The core half is thinner. HPE Telco Solutions, which HCLTech acquired during the quarter, “was consolidated for two months in Q2 and contributed approximately $21 million in revenue, helping services sequential growth by 62 basis points,” Chief Financial Officer Shiv Walia said in the post-earnings call.

That narrows down the estimated sequential increase from the rest of the services business to roughly $30 million. Vijayakumar puts organic services growth at 2.3%, against 3% reported, excluding acquisitions.

AI and one acquisition therefore account for about 70% of the quarter’s services growth, based on the disclosed figures.

Guidance Built on Acquisitions

HCLTech now guides to full-year CC revenue growth of 2.5–4%, up from 1–4%. The midpoint moves from 2.5% to 3.25%, a gain of 75 basis points.

Walia says the guidance “now includes inorganic contribution of 62 basis points for services and 87 basis points for the company.” The midpoint of organic guidance, he says, “is broadly unchanged.” The acquisition contribution is enough to explain the midpoint increase.

Gaurav Vasu, CEO and Founder of research firm UnearthInsight, reads it as lower downside risk.

“The top end is unchanged, so the change mainly lowers the downside risk,” he tells AIM. “It points to greater confidence in the existing business and in deal ramp-ups.” It does not yet show that discretionary technology spending has recovered broadly.

Vasu counts four acquisitions worth $419.4 million in FY26 and two worth $160.5 million so far in FY27. “We believe close to 1.5 percentage points of full-year growth will come from acquisitions,” he says, above the 87 basis points built into guidance.

Management is not pushing further. Vijayakumar says HCLTech does not want to raise guidance in “a volatile world.” “Things can change fast, both on the positive and negative side,” he noted in the post-earnings call. On services, he added, “we feel confident to be slightly above the midpoint.”

HCLSoftware is also a drag. It reported revenue of $294 million, down 11.2% YoY in CC. Management attributes this to fewer multi-year licence renewals and points to annual recurring revenue, which rose 7.6% to $1.134 billion, as the better gauge.

One Large Contract

Bookings were $3.3 billion, up 27% from a year earlier. Vasu calculates that a $1.14 billion contract with a Europe-headquartered Fortune Global 50 company makes up about 35% of that.

Reports identify the client as Mercedes-Benz. Without it, bookings would’ve been about $2.12 billion.

Vijayakumar says the contract will add no revenue in the next two quarters. It will start contributing in the first quarter of the next fiscal year.

Margins Show the AI Effect

The IT services company’s earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin rose 131 basis points to 18.2%. Of those, Walia attributed 73 to its Project Ascend programme, which includes AI-driven efficiencies, and 32 to the higher margin on advanced AI services.

Operating leverage in sales and general costs added 50 basis points, and currency added 23. Restructuring costs took away 22 basis points and the HPE acquisition 25. Excluding restructuring, the EBIT margin was 19%, against 17.5% in the first quarter.

Vijayakumar said advanced AI services earn margins at least 7–10 percentage points above traditional services, and the platform and intellectual property component should earn gross margins above 70%.

Praveen Bhadada, CEO and MD of Neovay Global, notes that AI revenue “is still small, but it is growing faster than anything else in the portfolio.” Much of it comes from “real infrastructure and engineering work rather than pilot projects.”

Bhadada reads the 6,450 net additions to headcount as a sign HCLTech expects demand to continue. Revenue per employee fell 0.1% sequentially to $65,400 in September 2026, and rose only 2.4% YoY.

New Money or Reallocated Budget?

Current AI engagements are mostly a “strategic reallocation of existing IT budgets” rather than new spending, Gartner Principal Analyst Shubham Singh Rathore tells AIM. Gartner forecasts worldwide annual AI services spending will reach $516 billion by 2029.

HCLTech’s pricing follows that logic in relation to consumption-linked revenue. Vijayakumar said its work with frontier labs such as Anthropic, with which HCLTech recently signed a global premier partnership, has “pricing which includes the token cost”. Revenue becomes less tied to headcount.

Vijayakumar also added that AI was “a central theme in every large deal” the company won. It remains to be seen whether that spending expands the market or redefines it. Some analysts argue that AI-led deflation still outweighs the revenue AI brings in.

Where TCS and Accenture Fit

HCLTech “has outperformed almost all of its large peers, including TCS, Infosys and Wipro,” Vasu says. “It is a strong result in a tough market, and it follows a weak first quarter.” HCLTech's revenue fell 0.5% sequentially in April–June 2026, before growing 2.3% in July–September 2026, compared to 0.5% growth at TCS in the same quarter.

He also points to the quarter’s regional mix, with India up 21.8% YoY in CC and the US up 3.5%, while Europe slipped 0.3%.

TCS disclosed annualised AI revenue of $3.1 billion, about 10% of its revenue and up from $2.6 billion a quarter earlier. HCLTech’s annualised advanced AI revenue of $876 million is about 6% of revenue.

HCLTech recorded faster sequential services growth in the quarter, despite TCS reporting a larger share of revenue from AI. However, the two define AI revenue differently, so the comparison is not clean.

Bhadada says HCLTech’s services business is growing faster than TCS’s and that HCLTech is adding people while TCS’s headcount stays largely flat. Both still trail Accenture, which “grew at roughly twice the pace in its latest quarter,” Bhadada notes.

HCLTech’s progress shows Indian firms “can win in the new AI-led market,” but closing the gap “will need the kind of bold investment in skills and capabilities that Accenture is already making.”

HCLTech's larger test will come in Q1 FY28, when the large European contract begins contributing revenue. That will show how much of the deal wins translates into recognised revenue.