IMF 最新预测：未计入 AI 生产率增益，AI 衰退损失约为繁荣收益两倍
The IMF just published its latest forecasts and it assume no extra productivity growth from AI, and the report finds that economy-wide data still show little ef
IMF 发布最新预测，其中未假设 AI 带来额外生产率增长，报告发现整体经济数据在工资、就业和可测生产率上仍几乎看不到 AI 的影响，尽管特定任务已有改善。IMF 模型显示，AI 衰退对全球经济的代价约为繁荣收益的两倍，到 2028 年产出损失 1.1%，而到 2029 年收益为 0.6%。报告还指出，AI 硬件贸易额自 2019 年以来约增长两倍，主要来自价格上涨而非出货量增加，台湾和韩国贡献 62% 的净出口，美国和中国承接超过 75% 的净进口。
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The IMF just published its latest forecasts and it assume no extra productivity growth from AI, and the report finds that economy-wide data still show little effect on wages, jobs or measured productivity, despite gains on specific tasks.
> The surge in AI hardware trade comes mostly from higher prices rather than more units shipped, and rising memory chip costs are already pushing up core-goods inflation in some rich economies.
> In the IMF’s models, an AI bust costs the world economy almost twice what an AI boom adds: 1.1% of output lost by 2028, against 0.6% gained by 2029.
> AI hardware trade has roughly tripled in value since 2019 because prices rose, not because more was shipped, with Taiwan and Korea supplying 62% of net exports and the US and China taking over 75% of net imports.