摩根士丹利：2027 年超大规模厂商与新云 AI 支出达 1.58 万亿美元
Morgan Stanley puts 2027’s hyperscaler and neocloud AI spending at $1.58T after counting data-center leases as capex.
摩根士丹利将数据中心租约计入资本开支后，估算 2027 年超大规模厂商与新云厂商的 AI 支出为 1.58 万亿美元。超大规模厂商持有超 1.1 万亿美元尚未开始的租约，这类租约类似债务融资采购却不计入资本开支。其中约 65%（约 1.03 万亿美元）落入标普 500 收入，Nvidia 拿走约 6900 亿美元、占整个预算的 44%，其余 499 家成分股约分得 3400 亿美元，另有约 5500 亿美元流向韩国存储厂商、台湾 ODM 和私营公司。2027 年预计为现金流缺口峰值，靠项目债和可转债融资建设的 GPU 租赁新云对融资成本最为敏感。
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Morgan Stanley puts 2027’s hyperscaler and neocloud AI spending at $1.58T after counting data-center leases as capex.
Hyperscalers hold over $1.1T in leases that haven’t begun, which work like debt-funded purchases but never appear as capex.
About 65% of the 2027 total, roughly $1.03T, lands in S&P 500 revenue, and Nvidia takes about $690B of it, or 44% of the entire budget.
That leaves roughly $340B for the other 499 index members, while about $550B flows outside the index to Korean memory makers, Taiwanese ODMs and private companies.
With 2027 the projected peak cash shortfall, GPU-rental neoclouds funding builds through project debt and convertibles are the most exposed to financing costs.