Damodaran：AI 万亿美元市场的前提是取代人类工作

纽约大学教授阿斯沃斯·达摩达兰（“估值院长”）发表了一篇长文博客，称Anthropic的IPO将按年化收入定价，而非基于现金流进行估值。 > 要为Anthropic论证1.5万亿至2万亿美元的估值，需要极快的早期增长、营业利润率升至30%或以上、算力成本增速慢于收入，以及随着监管和商业模式趋于稳定、风险降至平均水平。 > 2026年上半年，Anthropic亏损87亿美元、OpenAI亏损216亿美元（不含非现金费用），这排除了盈利倍数的可能，使ARR成为AI领域等同于互联网泡沫时期“眼球数”和社交媒体“用户数”的指标。 > ARR没有统一标准：OpenAI的500亿美元按净额计入合作伙伴销售额，Anthropic的650亿美元则按总额计入，而将OpenAI按总额上调后，就得出了投资者流传的约700亿美元数字。两者都按月年化，而这一选择双方都可以改变。 > 这里的风投轮次是在为IPO定价，而非为业务估值：Anthropic的5月轮融资以9650亿美元投后估值募资650亿美元，而当时预期的IPO定价为1.15万亿美元，这是对延迟或失望的折价。 > 定价很可能会转向2030年或2036年的收入和盈利，届时25倍的2036年盈利看起来便宜，但只有在错误地与当前盈利的当下倍数相比较时才会如此。 > 哪家实验室更便宜取决于衡量标准：在1.5万亿至2万亿美元估值下，按当前和年末ARR看Anthropic更便宜，按2030年收入、算力和用户看OpenAI更便宜，而两者可能都只是定价过高。 > 市场上不存在已上市的纯业务可比公司，因为Gemini隶属于Alphabet，xAI隶属于SpaceX，Muse隶属于Meta，因此Anthropic将参照OpenAI的私募轮次或Mag 7和SpaceX来定价。

查看原文

NYU professor Aswath Damodaran ("Dean of Valuation"), published a long blog and says Anthropic’s IPO will be priced on run-rate revenue rather than valued on cash flows. > Justifying a $1.5T to $2T value for Anthropic requires very fast early growth, operating margins rising to 30% or more, compute costs growing slower than revenue, and risk falling to average as regulation and business models settle. > H1 2026 losses of $8.7B at Anthropic and $21.6B at OpenAI, excluding non-cash charges, rule out earnings multiples, making ARR the AI equivalent of dot-com eyeballs and social-media user counts. > ARR has no standard: OpenAI’s $50B counts partner sales net, Anthropic’s $65B counts them gross, and grossing up OpenAI produced the roughly $70B figure investors circulated. Both annualize monthly, a choice either can change. > VC rounds here price the IPO rather than value the business: Anthropic’s May round raised $65B at $965B post-money when expected IPO pricing was $1.15T, a haircut for delay or disappointment. > Pricing will likely migrate to 2030 or 2036 revenue and earnings, where 25 times 2036 earnings looks cheap only when wrongly compared with today’s multiples on current earnings. > The cheaper lab depends on the yardstick: at $1.5T to $2T, Anthropic looks cheaper on current and year-end ARR, OpenAI on 2030 revenue, compute and users, and both may simply be overpriced. > No listed pure-play peer exists, since Gemini sits inside Alphabet, xAI inside SpaceX and Muse inside Meta, so Anthropic will be priced against OpenAI’s private rounds or the Mag 7 and SpaceX.