Gartner 预测 AI 基础设施 2026 年投入近 1 万亿美元，超 3.5 万亿美元或需减记
Gartner forecasts that AI providers will spend nearly $1T on infrastructure in 2026 and another $6T from 2027 to 2030, and says more than $3.5T of that spending
Gartner 预测 AI 供应商 2026 年将在基础设施上投入近 1 万亿美元，2027 至 2030 年再投入 6 万亿美元，其中超过 3.5 万亿美元到 2030 年底可能需要减记，因为收入无法覆盖成本。Gartner 还指出，多数 AI 原生供应商采用轻资产模式，因此不到一半的 AI 收入会流向拥有大量基础设施的公司。GPU 租赁商 neocloud 风险最集中，它们缺少超大规模厂商那样的多元收入；AI 优化 IaaS 支出将从 2027 年的 660 亿美元增至 2030 年的 1740 亿美元，Gartner 认为这一增速不足以让多数供应商在现有 AI 芯片被替换前收回投资。
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Gartner forecasts that AI providers will spend nearly $1T on infrastructure in 2026 and another $6T from 2027 to 2030, and says more than $3.5T of that spending could need write-downs by the end of 2030 because revenue won’t cover its cost
Much of that revenue also flows elsewhere, because most AI-native providers run asset-light models, so less than half of AI revenue will reach companies that own significant infrastructure.
Neoclouds, the GPU rental specialists below the hyperscalers, sit most exposed because they lack the diversified revenue that could let hyperscalers fund AI investment for years.
Their market grows too slowly to help, since AI-optimized IaaS spending rises from $66 billion in 2027 to $174 billion in 2030, which Gartner says won’t let most providers recoup investments before current AI chips are replaced.