这是前沿实验室的 WeWork 时刻吗？
Could this be the Frontier Labs’ WeWork moment?
Gary Marcus 认为，tokenmaxxing 热潮消退、中国开源权重模型引发价格战，加上失控智能体带来的潜在责任问题，让 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 寻求的巨额估值越来越难以成立。OpenAI 已将 IPO 推迟到 2027 年，Anthropic 据称下月上市但尚未公开 S-1 文件。
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当前显示原文，中文全文译文尚未就绪。
Some ominous signs
In May, at the peak of tokenmaxxing, people were talking about OpenAI IPO’ing at a trillion dollars, Anthropic at two trillion dollars. Maybe that will still happen, but it probably shouldn’t.
Tokenmaxxing died, Chinese open-weight models forced price wars, there was some hinkiness around some of projections OpenAI’s revenue and the so-called “rogue AI” (really just bad software) fiasco hadn’t yet made the news. With the errant, and possibly criminal, nature of poorly controlled agents now front and center, potential liability is clearly becoming a major new issue. LLM’s might well someday be renamed Large Liability Modules.
Against all of this, it’s harder and harder to fathom how the companies could really merit the enormous valuations they are seeking. This is perhaps part of why OpenAI has pushed back their OpenAI until 2027. (Anthropic is supposedly going to IPO next month, but notably still has not publicly released its S-1.)
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Two things I read this morning, jet lagged in New Dehli, seem even more ominous.
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