Thomas Wolf：智能价格下降或为宇宙史级事件
on the scale of cosmic history, the declining price of intelligence might be one of the most profound things happening
HuggingFace 联合创始人 Thomas Wolf 称，在宇宙历史尺度上，智能价格的持续下降可能是当下最深刻的事件之一。他引用 Epoch AI 数据：自 2023 年以来，同等性能水平的 AI 成本每季度下降约 47%，比 DNA 测序快 4 倍、比算力快 6 倍、比锂电池快 18 倍，比 1973 年前的电力快 54 倍。他认为生命、大脑与 AI 模型都处于熵流之中，把部分自由能导向构建低熵结构，而越来越便宜的智能会让更多能量流向知识构建结构。
查看原帖AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history. At a given level of performance, cost has fallen ~47%/quarter since 2023. That’s 4× faster than DNA sequencing, 6× faster than compute, 18× faster than lithium batteries, and (up to 1973) 54× faster than electricity.
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on the scale of cosmic history, the declining price of intelligence might be one of the most profound things happening
both ends of the universe’s timeline are empty of knowledge: - the big bang: low entropy, no complex structure - heat death: maximum entropy, no usable energy gradients
everything we build happens on the slope between them
but the universe is generally a poor converter of its free energy into anything constructive. most of its free energy just radiates away as heat or collapses into black holes
life, brains and now AI models are structures that sit in the entropy flow and divert a portion of it through constructive paths, building and maintaining low-entropy structures (machines, cells, crystals, memories)
increasingly cheaper intelligence diverts increasingly more of that gradient flow through knowledge-building structures, complex, self-maintaining, predictive structures, filling the window in which understanding exists