美国绿卡暂停的意外赢家：印度离岸 AI 中心

At first, the US government’s suspension of green card applications from Indian IT firms seems like a major escalation in targeting tech talent pathways.

The Donald Trump administration recently halted the Permanent Labor Certification Program (PERM)—the first step for employers wanting to sponsor foreign workers for US-based employment—for eight technology companies. These are TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech, Cognizant, Capgemini, Microsoft, and Adobe.

The US Department of Labor (DoL) cited alleged immigration programme abuse and the need to protect American workers. US Vice President JD Vance went further and accused Microsoft of laying off American workers while simultaneously hiring through H-1B visas and green card applications—which Microsoft has denied.

Indians accounted for roughly 71% of H-1B approvals in FY24, but AIM’s analysis of the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services shows Indians' share of employment-based immigration approvals—specifically EB-2 and EB-3 visas—has been declining. While petitions for the visa categories jumped 35% and 19% respectively between October–December 2025 (Q1 FY26) and April–June 2026 (Q3), fewer petitions are being approved.

India EB-2 approvals fell from 11,387 in Q1 to 9,131 in Q3—a change of 19.8%. Meanwhile, EB-3 approvals fell 30%, from 3,785 in Q1 to 2,650 in Q3.

Also, available records from DoL and employer-level data compiled by the hiring research platform Ivvora show PERM determinations for these restricted companies have been on a decline since Donald Trump entered office.

Microsoft recorded 3,158 PERM determinations in FY25 and 1,683 in the first nine months of FY26. Adobe recorded 466 and 183, respectively, while TCS recorded 513 and two. Separately, PERM Tracker recorded 1,831 Cognizant cases in an “APPLICATION ON HOLD” status on September 8, 2026.

Restrictions on permanent residency could complicate how some technology companies retain specialised engineers. Whether that translates into more AI and engineering work moving to India remains an open question.

No Immediate Impact

TCS CEO K Krithivasan told TOI that locally hired employees account for about half of TCS’s US workforce. TCS expects no disruption from the recent restrictions to its workforce strategy or client engagements, and plans to hire 15,000 additional people in the US over five years.

Infosys has also said it does not expect a material impact. TCS, Infosys, Wipro and HCLTech together had 61 certified PERM cases between October 1, 2025, and June 30, 2026, compared with 1,04,028 nationwide, according to the DoL data.

Meanwhile, earlier in September, DoL had suspended PERM certification filings for Cognizant amid an investigation into alleged H-1B and PERM visa fraud, blocking new filings. However, no criminal charges have been filed yet.

AIM reached out to Cognizant for a comment, but it declined to participate in the story.

The AI Talent Question

The suspension also raises questions about the US strategy for maintaining its lead in artificial intelligence. “The PERM suspension signals that the US believes it can sustain its lead in the AI race by relying on domestic talent,” Gaurav Vasu, CEO and Founder of business intelligence firm UnearthInsight, tells AIM.

Vasu distinguishes between the future of core AI development and the offshoring of technology services.

“It is too early to say whether this will accelerate the development of core AI capabilities in offshore hubs such as India,” he notes. “However, it will certainly increase the offshoring component of technology services.”

Vasu expects product companies such as Microsoft and Adobe to face greater difficulty transitioning foreign AI specialists to permanent residency. IT services firms, he says, generally have less in-house specialised AI engineering depth and do not relocate such talent in the same way.

Moreover, Indian IT firms are also facing questions about their growth and business models amid a shifting hierarchy within the sector.

Microsoft has been expanding its AI engineering organisation through its CoreAI division while competing with rivals for senior AI talent.

For IT services firms, the immediate cost could come from retaining experienced employees in the US or recruiting replacements locally, even if client work and revenue remain largely unchanged.

Vasu estimates negligible immediate revenue impact for Indian IT services firms, with 10–30 basis points of operating margin pressure over the next 12 months as they retain experienced US-based staff and hire replacements. If the suspension persists for several years, he estimates margin pressure could rise to 30–75 basis points, with revenue 0.25–0.75% below otherwise expected levels.

Where India Can Gain

Indian IT services firms could respond to tighter US immigration restrictions by combining local hiring with more offshore delivery.

Saran Balasundaram, Founder and CEO of Han Digital Group, a talent advisory company, believes the suspension could make moving to the US more complex for experienced Indian technology professionals, particularly H-1B employees who depend on employer-sponsored green cards.

Some may reconsider relocating or returning to India, where AI programmes, R&D operations, and engineering teams offer opportunities to lead projects. Balasundaram expects Indian IT firms to prioritise professionals with existing US work authorisation for client-facing roles while strengthening remote delivery models. Companies could also combine US-based teams with nearshore capabilities in Canada and Mexico.

“The larger shift may be… more about where talent is based and how technology work is delivered,” Balasundaram says. “India could benefit if companies respond by moving more complex engineering, AI and product development work here.”

Indian IT services firms would be one route for that work to move offshore. Global capability centres (GCCs), which multinational companies use to run engineering, product development, R&D operations, and, increasingly, AI-led decision-making in India, offer another way.

Balasundaram points to return migration among experienced H-1B workers, rising demand for senior engineers and AI specialists in India, new engineering mandates for Indian GCCs, and growth in offshore contracts as indicators to watch.

“The strongest evidence of an opportunity for India would be sustained growth in domestic hiring and higher-value engineering work, rather than a decline in US visa approvals alone,” he says.