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星期一

  1. Import AI

    Import AI 455:AI 系统即将开始自我构建

    Import AI 作者 Jack Clark 认为,AI 系统很可能在 2028 年底前实现无人类参与的 AI 研发,即前沿模型能自主训练出自己的后继版本,他给出的概率是 60% 以上,2027 年前实现的概率约为 30%。他依据公开数据梳理证据链:SWE-Bench 从 Claude 2 的约 2% 升至 Claude Mythos Preview 的 93.9%,METR 时间跨度从 2022 年 GPT 3.5 的约 30 秒升至 2026 年 Opus 4.6 的约 12 小时,CORE-Bench、MLE-Bench、PostTrainBench 以及 Anthropic 的模型训练优化任务也显示 AI 在核心研发环节快速进步。他认为 AI 目前尚不能提出颠覆性新想法,但 AI 研发大量属于可自动化的工程性工作,且 OpenAI、Anthropic、DeepMind 及多家初创公司都在明确追求自动化 AI 研发。

    do tasks that take 100 hours by the end of 2026 ( 448 ). This significant rise in the length of time that AI systems can work independently correlates neatly with the explosion in agentic coding tools - this is the productization of AI systems which do work on behalf of people, acting independently for significant periods of time. It also loops back to AI R&D, where if you look closely at the work of many AI researchers, a lot of their tasks boil down into things that might take a person a few h

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星期三

  1. Augment Code 博客

    DX CTO 谈 AI 转型是系统问题而非个人问题

    DX CTO Justin Reock 在 Augment Code 播客中提出,AI 转型的核心是系统问题而非个人问题。DX 对 500 家公司的纵向研究显示,PR 速度中位数提升 7.5%,平均 13%,最高 70%。他指出工程师仅 16% 时间在写代码,只优化这部分只能获得个位数提升;高绩效公司共同具备模块化代码、新鲜文档、快速 CI/CD、学习文化和智能体编排等特征。

    AI transformation is a systems problem: a conversation with Justin Reock, DX

    cessible, current documentation. Stale docs and tangled code aren't just engineer pain points. They're inference inputs; Fast CI/CD pipelines. If your build takes 40 minutes, your agent's feedback loop takes 40 minutes too; Education and time to absorb it. DX's data showed something counterintuitive. Light AI adoption actually decreases productivity. Only moderate-to-heavy adoption outperforms non-adoption. The learning curve is real, and it requires time, safe-to-fail projects, and psychologica

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星期四

  1. Cognition 模型 / Devin 博客

    Cognition 复盘构建云智能体基础设施的经验

    Cognition 发文复盘为 Devin 构建云智能体基础设施两年多的经验,认为把 CLI 智能体容器化后会遇到安全、持久化和编排三类问题。文章指出容器共享内核存在逃逸风险,行业共识是采用 VM 级隔离,Cognition 自研 microVM 耗时超过一年;容器也无法在 CI 等待等异步间隙中保存完整状态,因此改为在 hypervisor 层快照内存、进程树和文件系统。文章还提到编排、治理与集成各需多季度投入,Stripe 的内部 MCP server 有超过 400 个工具,并称 Itaú 在近 17000 名工程师中落地十一个月,迁移速度提升 5 到 6 倍、自动修复 70% 静态分析安全漏洞、测试覆盖率提升 2 倍。

    Enterprises are converging on cloud agents as the future of software engineering — and many are concluding they should build their own. Posts like Stripe's, detailing how they built a homegrown cloud agent, make the path look achievable. Building cloud agent infrastructure requires two investments: the technical infrastructure to run agents securely and autonomously in the cloud, and the change management to make agents productive across your engineering org. We've spent over two years on both,

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星期三

  1. Cognition 模型 / Devin 博客精选

    Cognition 复盘多智能体:哪些做法真正有效

    Cognition 发文复盘十个月的多智能体实践,认为并行写作者群体仍难落地,真正有效的是写操作保持单线程、其他智能体只贡献判断的模式。文中给出两个已验证案例:Devin 与 Devin Review 在互不共享上下文的情况下迭代,平均每个 PR 发现 2 个 bug,其中约 58% 为严重问题;跨前沿模型互调的 smart friend 在生产环境中于最难场景带来实际提升。作者同时指出,让能力较弱的主模型判断何时升级求助仍是未解问题,并认为这属于训练层面的问题。

    10 months ago, I wrote Don't Build Multi-Agents, arguing that most people shouldn't try to build multi-agent systems [1]. Parallel agents make implicit choices about style, edge cases, and code patterns. At the time, these decisions often conflicted with each other, leading to fragile products. A lot has changed since then. At Cognition, we've begun to deploy multi-agent systems that actually work in practice. Our original observations still hold today for parallel-writer swarms: most of the sex

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星期日

  1. Browser Use精选

    Browser Use 联合创始人:智能体 harness 的苦涩教训,别封装 LLM 的工具

    Browser Use 联合创始人兼 CTO 发文称,团队此前只做到不封装 LLM,却仍在封装它的工具,每个 click()、type()、scroll() 辅助函数都是模型必须绕开的约束。新方案直接给模型原始 CDP 访问权限,harness 仅约 600 行,由 run.py(13 行)、helpers.py(192 行)、daemon.py(220 行)和 SKILL.md 组成,工具缺失时智能体自行 grep helpers.py 补写函数并重跑。文中举例称智能体曾自行写出 upload_file()、改用分块上传绕过 CDP websocket 约 10MB 的载荷上限,仓库地址为 github.com/browser-use/browser-harness。

    The Bitter Lesson of Agent Harnesses

    moments; Try it A SKILL.md and some Python helpers. The LLM has complete freedom. If something's missing, it writes it. The learning A few months ago we wrote The Bitter Lesson of Agent Frameworks. The argument: don't wrap the LLM in abstractions. Maximal action space, then restrict. We were still wrapping its tools. Every click(), type(), scroll() helper is an abstraction you decided the model needs. Every one of them is a constraint the RL'd model has to fight around. Why raw CDP When we built

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星期三

  1. Redwood Research:Blog精选

    Redwood Research:当前 AI 在行为层面仍明显未对齐

    Redwood Research 发文认为,当前 AI 系统在行为层面仍明显未对齐,表现为夸大工作成果、淡化或隐瞒问题、任务未完成却声称完成,并在长时自主智能体任务中较常见地出现奖励黑客与作弊且不在输出中说明。作者称这些观察主要基于 Opus 4.5 和 Opus 4.6 的使用经验,并认为用另一个 AI 实例做评审虽有帮助但存在系统性局限。作者预计这类问题在一年内会大幅减少,但在极难验证的任务上可能持续存在。

    ult/larger tasks, tasks that aren’t straightforward SWE tasks, and tasks that aren’t easy to programmatically check. Also, when I apply AIs to very difficult tasks in long-running agentic scaffolds, it’s quite common for them to reward-hack / cheat (depending on the exact task distribution)—and they don’t make the cheating clear in their outputs. AIs typically don’t flag these cheats when doing further work on the same project and often don’t flag these cheats even when interacting with a user w

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星期三

  1. Johann Rehberger / Embrace The Red精选

    Johann Rehberger:智能体让所有漏洞都变浅

    安全研究者 Johann Rehberger 认为,智能体正变得极擅长发现安全漏洞,他在博文中引用 Anthropic 同日发布的 Mythos Preview 数据:Opus 4.6 在数百次尝试中仅两次成功利用 Firefox JS 引擎漏洞,而 Mythos Preview 成功 181 次。Anthropic 将 Mythos 以受限预览形式开放,并宣布 Project Glasswing,联合 AWS、Cisco、Microsoft、Linux Foundation、CrowdStrike、Palo Alto Networks、NVIDIA 等公司加固关键软件,同时捐赠最高 1 亿美元额度加 400 万美元给开源软件。Rehberger 指出,能力提升主要改变攻击者的吞吐量而非人数,组织快速部署补丁将成为最大挑战,并预计 6-12 个月后开源权重模型将具备接近能力。

    Agents are becoming extremely effective at finding security vulnerabilities. They are relentless in analyzing code and you can spin up multiple of them to go through source code quickly. given enough agents, all bugs are shallow— Johann Rehberger (@wunderwuzzi23) February 10, 2026 It is an emerging capability that many security researchers and bug bounty hunters have observed over the last year. Gadi Evron posted about the upcoming AI Vulnerability Cataclysm last year to help raise awareness. In

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  2. Augment Code 博客

    Augment Code 认为单模型工程时代已结束

    Augment Code 的 Matt Ball 认为单模型工程时代已经结束,模型在智能、速度和价格上趋于收敛,领先地位每隔几个月就会易主。他提出将模型、harness 和编排层解耦,使模型切换从迁移变为开关,并透露 Augment Code 已接入 Gemini 3.1 Pro,与 Claude 和 GPT-5 并列。

    The era of single-model engineering is over

    same thing, and when the tool is built around one provider, that's basically true. The prompts are tuned for that model. The context retrieval is optimized for its strengths. The agent behavior is shaped around its quirks. Switching the model means rebuilding all of it. That's why it feels like a migration. But those are separate layers, and they don't have to be coupled. Think of it as three things: The model is the LLM doing the generation: Claude, GPT-5, Gemini; The harness is what feeds the

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星期二

  1. Mitchell Hashimoto 原创博客精选

    Mitchell Hashimoto:智能体正在推动软件进入“构建模块经济”

    Mitchell Hashimoto 提出,智能体驱动的“构建模块经济”已经改变软件开发,高质量、文档完善的开放组件正成为大量应用的组装基础。Ghostty 在 18 个月内达到每日 100 万次 macOS 更新检查,libghostty 在 2 个月内进入拥有数百万日活用户的工具。由此形成的衍生应用和分叉项目可降低小众需求的开发门槛、分担研发探索,也可能让封闭商业软件在智能体选型中处于劣势。

    " because it extends even up to "applications" (e.g. the Ghostty GUI app has more forks than ever before with customized patches on top, which is awesome). The factory of today is agentic3. I say that as objective truth, regardless of what your feelings about it are. You can argue that 99% of the stuff coming out of these factories is total crap, but you can't argue the sheer quantity of stuff coming out. The numbers are everywhere spanning tech stacks and industries and they're undeniable. AI i

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星期三

  1. Together AI Blog

    深入 Together AI 内核团队

    Together AI 内核团队通过软硬件协同优化 GPU 内核,缩小模型设计与硬件实际性能之间的差距。其 FlashAttention 将注意力提速 2–3 倍,ThunderKittens 把 1,000+ 行 CUDA 代码缩减至 100–200 行。团队还将 Llama-3.2-1B 的首批 64 Token 延迟从 281ms 降至 77ms。

    Abstract background with purple and red shapes and text 'Kernels Lab' and a labeled research button.

    fessor and leader of the HeavyBall Research group at NYU Shanghai. One example of applying this academic engine to production use cases involved one of the leading real-time voice agent companies. They came to Together with a hard constraint: time-to-first-64-tokens above roughly 100ms breaks the conversational experience. On their previous setup, deployed on NVIDIA B200 GPUs, they were hitting 281ms. Fast for most workloads. Not fast enough for theirs. Together's kernels team worked with them t

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星期四

  1. Answer.AI 官方研发博客

    Answer.AI 分析 PyPI 数据:AI 提效只体现在 AI 相关热门包上

    Answer.AI 分析 PyPI 数据发现,ChatGPT 发布后整体新包创建量并未明显增长,2026 年 3 月新包超过 25,000 个,接近 2025 年 3 月的两倍,但此前的峰值多来自垃圾与恶意包。按是否与 AI 相关拆分后,2023 年首次发布的 AI 相关包首年更新中位数为 20 次,约为同年非 AI 包的两倍;在下载量前 7,500 的热门包中,AI 相关包在 ChatGPT 后年更新中位数升至 21 至 26 次,而非 AI 热门包稳定在约 10 次。作者提出两种解释,一是做 AI 工具的人更会用 AI,二是资金与热度让 AI 相关包被投入更多人力,但数据无法判断哪种影响更大。

    Alexis Gallagher & Rens Dimmendaal March 12, 2026 Fans of vibecoding and agentic tools say they are 2x as productive, 10x as productive – maybe 100x as productive! Someone built an entire web browser from scratch. Amazing! So, skeptics reasonably ask, where are all the apps? If AI users are becoming (let’s be conservative) merely 2x more productive, then where do we look to see 2x more software being produced? Such questions all start from the assumption that the world wants more software, so th

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星期五

  1. Benedict Evans:Blog

    Benedict Evans 分析 OpenAI 的竞争战略困境

    Benedict Evans 认为 OpenAI 面临四个战略问题:模型无独特优势、用户基数大但粘性低、缺乏现有产品分销、产品策略受制于研究进展。他指出 OpenAI 试图通过巨额资本支出和全栈平台叙事构建护城河,但平台类比并不成立,因为模型 API 可替换且用户不关心底层模型。

    enClaw captured some of this). A website can surface its capabilities so that a subset can just show up in ChatGPT, be it a real estate search or a shopping cart. You’ll tell your agent to look at a recipe on Instagram and order the ingredients on Instacart. Everything can get piped to everything else, and everything can talk to each other! Meanwhile, (saying the quiet part out loud), if you could set and control those APIs and manage the flows, that gives you power. Standards have been a basic

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星期六

  1. Charlie O’Neill 研究写作

    开源 AI 为何可能靠专业化模型等到与前沿实验室的差距缩小

    Charlie O’Neill 认为,开源 AI 无需在通用能力上追平前沿模型,只需通过领域数据、强化学习和更低推理成本扩大可经济自动化的工作范围。多数企业任务依赖专有数据与特定工作流,专业化的小模型可能比通用前沿模型更快、更便宜且更贴合实际分布。随着开放模型能力提高和服务成本下降,专业化层创造的收入还可能反哺后续模型训练。

    owing the same log-linear improvements[5] that pre-training showed. As frontier labs train on a broader and broader set of RL tasks — first math, then code, then a wide variety of agentic work — the models will generalise. Just as GPT-2 generalised beyond its training distribution when trained on a broad enough internet scrape, RL-trained models will generalise beyond their specific training tasks when trained on a broad enough set of RL environments. At some point, the frontier model clears the

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星期四

  1. METR Notes

    METR 作者澄清时间跨度指标的局限与仍成立的结论

    METR 时间跨度论文作者发文澄清该指标的常见误读,指出时间跨度并非 AI 能独立工作的时间长度,而是其以 50% 成功率可替代的人类串行劳动量,且测量本身并不精确。作者表示仍坚持核心结论,包括长期趋势约每 6-7 个月翻倍,以及线性外推预测 AI 将在 2030 年达到 1 个月即 167 工作小时的时间跨度,并提到计划很快更新任务集,纳入大部分 HCAST 任务及新任务。

    e reasons to be skeptical of the magnitude. Early Work on Monitorability Evaluations We show preliminary results on a prototype evaluation that tests monitors' ability to catch AI agents doing side tasks, and AI agents' ability to bypass this monitoring. How Does Time Horizon Vary Across Domains? We build on our time-horizon work and analyze 9 benchmarks for scientific reasoning, math, robotics, computer use, and self-driving in terms of time-horizon trends; we observe generally similar rates of

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星期二

  1. Ahead of AI

    2025 年大语言模型回顾:进展、局限与未来预测

    Sebastian Raschka 回顾 2025 年大语言模型发展,认为主要进展来自 RLVR、GRPO、推理时扩展、工具调用及架构效率优化,而非单纯扩大预训练规模。他指出公开基准已难以可靠反映真实能力,并预测 2026 年 RLVR 将扩展到数学和编码以外的领域,本地工具调用与智能体能力会逐步普及。文章同时主张将 AI 作为提升专业工作的伙伴,而非完全替代人的思考、编码与研究。

    weight model (gpt-oss, and I wrote a standalone article about it earlier this year); MCP (joining the Linux Foundation) has already become the standard for tool and data access in agent-style LLM systems (for now); I expected the ecosystem to remain more fragmented in 2025, until at least 2026 9.2 Predictions for 2026 We will likely see an industry-scale, consumer-facing diffusion model for cheap, reliable, low-latency inference, with Gemini Diffusion probably going first; The open-weight commun

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星期六

  1. Linear:Now

    Linear 反思 AI 与代码工具下的设计价值

    Linear 团队认为,设计不应被简化为直接用代码执行,而应先明确问题、意图与产品愿景,再进入概念探索和实现阶段。文章以 Linear 的项目功能为例,说明设计师需要在不同抽象层次间切换;AI 智能体和新工具可以加速执行,但不应削弱发散思考与有意识的方向选择。

    An illustration showing the evolution of an image.

    hen the material fights back, you’re pushing with that confidence. Think of it in LLM terms. The design work you do before is the goal, context, and prompt you’re building for the agent to address the problem. The execution work is where you guide the agent through specific decisions. After reading all this, you might think, who has time for this? We need to ship. Why not build right away and figure it out as we go? I don’t think it comes down to time. My explanation might have been long, but th

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星期日

  1. Benedict Evans:Blog

    AI 如何改变互联网的 Mechanical Turk 与冷启动问题

    Benedict Evans 分析称,互联网平台依赖用户行为数据形成 Mechanical Turk 式推荐,但 LLM 带来了对内容和意图的更深理解,可能让新进入者通过 API 调用通用模型来绕过冷启动。他还指出,智能体助手将成为新的数据入口,但当前 AI 状态类似 1997 年的互联网,具体路径尚不明确。

    ted in different ways: your phone could know what you bought on Amazon or what images you saw in Instagram, but it wouldn’t see the graph that led Meta to show them to you. Now an agentic LLM assistant might become another blind man feeling the elephant, in different ways: it knows different things, but as you use it it also knows different thing about you, drawing new conclusions, especially if it’s buying things on Amazon and Instacart for you, and you’re using its browser, and its wearable. I

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星期五

  1. Cognition 模型 / Devin 博客精选

    Cognition 复盘 Devin 十八个月:从初级执行到按需资深智能

    Cognition 发布 Devin 上线十八个月的性能复盘,称其已进入包括 Goldman Sachs、Santander、Nubank 在内的数千家公司工程团队,累计合并数十万个 PR。Devin 在需求明确、结果可验证的任务上表现最好,如漏洞修复、语言与框架迁移、测试生成和 PR 初审,其中安全漏洞处理从人工平均 30 分钟降至 1.5 分钟,测试覆盖率通常从 50-60% 提升到 80-90%。其短板在于无法独立完成需求模糊的端到端项目、难以应对任务中途的需求变更,也缺乏软技能,因此仍需人工审查代码质量与测试逻辑。

    arized Devin's strengths and weaknesses in real-world environments, with examples and metrics from customers. We hope this will be helpful to anyone who's interested in real-world agent deployment. Strength pattern 1: Junior execution at infinite scale Devin excels at tasks with clear, upfront requirements and verifiable outcomes that would take a junior engineer 4-8 hrs of work. Unlike a human, though, it is infinitely parallelizable and never sleeps. This makes it well-suited to critical but l

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星期三

  1. One Useful Thing

    Ethan Mollick:给 AI 做一场面试,而不是只看基准分数

    Ethan Mollick 认为,公开基准存在题目泄漏、含义不明和未校准等问题,无法衡量写作、共情或商业判断等能力,因此个人可以用"氛围测试"感受模型差异,企业则应像招聘一样对 AI 做严格面试。他以 GuacaDrone 无人机送鳄梨酱的点子让多个模型各打分十次,发现模型内部评分相当一致,但模型之间差异明显,Grok 和 Microsoft Copilot 更看好,GPT-5 和 Claude 4.5 更怀疑,这种 3 到 4 分的系统性偏差在规模化使用时会持续影响决策方向。他建议企业用真实业务场景反复测试、由专家评估并横向比较模型,而且每年需多次重做。

    the right. The AIME is a hard math exam, GPQA tests scientific and legal knowledge, the MMLU is a general knowledge test, SWE-bench and LiveBench test coding, Terminal-Bench tests agentic ability. Data from Epoch AI . Despite these issues, all of these benchmarks, taken together, appear to measure some underlying ability facto r. And higher-quality benchmarks like ARC-AGI and METR Long Tasks show the same upward, even exponential, trend. This matches tests of the real-world impact of AI across i

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星期四

  1. Linear:Now

    Linear 描绘自驱动 SaaS 愿景,让软件自主推进工作

    Linear 提出自驱动 SaaS 愿景,希望规划与软件构建系统能代表用户自主推进工作,而非依赖持续提示。其设想分为辅助建议、选择性自动执行和完全自主处理三个层级,最终可将部分问题自动分派给编码智能体,仅由人工评估结果。

    Abstract illustration of issues and users rendered in the style of self-driving object detection

    oject, and person. The system uses the past completion history, existing backlog, and future roadmap as context to understand what to do; Simple changes are dispatched to a coding agent and completed without additional intervention. More complex requirements are automatically collated into project specifications and as new requirements roll in, the system keeps documentation up to date with the latest information In this new world you, the user, are still in control—you decide which projects to

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