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Open models have only 6 months left? Nathan Lambert on tightening regulation and the distillation dispute
Nathan Lambert believes that the most severe feasibility test for open-weight models is now unfolding: the White House is discussing managing open models through a new executive order, which may affect only Chinese-origin models and government uses. He judges that the most likely action is to ban, or indefinitely postpone, within the next 6 months open-weight models whose capabilities clearly exceed the GPT 5.5, Claude Opus 4.8, or GLM-5.2 range, and such models are currently most likely to come from Chinese companies. He criticizes the distillation issue led by Anthropic as having evolved into regulatory capture, and believes that if the United States alone bans imports of the relevant models, the global open-source ecosystem will continue, and instead make the United States itself harder to predict.
Nathan Lambert believes that the most severe feasibility test for open-weight models is now unfolding: the White House is discussing managing open models through a new executive order, which may affect only Chinese-origin models and government uses. He judges that the most likely action is to ban, or indefinitely postpone, within the next 6 months open-weight models whose capabilities clearly exceed the GPT 5.5, Claude Opus 4.8, or GLM-5.2 range, and such models are currently most likely to come
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