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Gartner data shows that GenAI model revenue was $1.4 billion in 2023 and $5.7 billion in 2024 (a 320.4% increase), and is projected to be $2.83 billion in 2026, with growth having slowed markedly, far below OpenAI's approximately $25 billion and Anthropic's $47 billion ARR in May. The AI platform market is already larger than the model market itself, while revenue growth for vertical-domain specialized models is about twice that of general-purpose foundation models. Data center and hardware investment over the next two years will reach trillions of dollars.
Gartner data shows that GenAI model revenue was $1.4 billion in 2023 and $5.7 billion in 2024 (a 320.4% increase), and is projected to be $2.83 billion in 2026, with growth having slowed markedly, far below OpenAI's approximately $25 billion and Anthropic's $47 billion ARR in May. The AI platform market is already larger than the model market itself, while revenue growth for vertical-domain specialized models is about twice that of general-purpose foundation models. Data center and hardware inve
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Nathan Lambert believes that the most severe feasibility test for open-weight models is now unfolding: the White House is discussing managing open models through a new executive order, which may affect only Chinese-origin models and government uses. He judges that the most likely action is to ban, or indefinitely postpone, within the next 6 months open-weight models whose capabilities clearly exceed the GPT 5.5, Claude Opus 4.8, or GLM-5.2 range, and such models are currently most likely to come from Chinese companies. He criticizes the distillation issue led by Anthropic as having evolved into regulatory capture, and believes that if the United States alone bans imports of the relevant models, the global open-source ecosystem will continue, and instead make the United States itself harder to predict.
Nathan Lambert believes that the most severe feasibility test for open-weight models is now unfolding: the White House is discussing managing open models through a new executive order, which may affect only Chinese-origin models and government uses. He judges that the most likely action is to ban, or indefinitely postpone, within the next 6 months open-weight models whose capabilities clearly exceed the GPT 5.5, Claude Opus 4.8, or GLM-5.2 range, and such models are currently most likely to come
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