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Open Model Roundup: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, the Distillation Controversy, and the Open-Closed Gap

The Interconnects podcast uses last week's release of Kimi K3 as the starting point for a quarterly roundup of open models, discussing its gap to the closed-source frontier, the continuing role of GLM 5.2, and progress from Chinese vendors such as Qwen, DeepSeek, and MiniMax. The episode also covers the distillation controversy, the U.S. open-model ecosystem, the distinction between frontier and near-frontier models, and cybersecurity arguments against bans.

Gartner: GenAI Hardware Investment Far Exceeds Model and Platform Revenue

Gartner data shows that GenAI model revenue was $1.4 billion in 2023 and $5.7 billion in 2024 (a 320.4% increase), and is projected to be $2.83 billion in 2026, with growth having slowed markedly, far below OpenAI's approximately $25 billion and Anthropic's $47 billion ARR in May. The AI platform market is already larger than the model market itself, while revenue growth for vertical-domain specialized models is about twice that of general-purpose foundation models. Data center and hardware investment over the next two years will reach trillions of dollars.

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