马斯克称 neocloud 将大规模失败，Nebius、CoreWeave 和 Iren 盘前跌超 4%

Gartner预测，成本压力将迫使超过80%的neocloud提供商在2030年前停止独立运营。 超大规模云厂商面临的风险较小，因为它们庞大且多元化的收入有望在数年内持续支撑AI投资。 Gartner还预测，AI优化的IaaS支出将从2027年的660亿美元增长到2030年的1740亿美元。 这一增速对大多数AI算力提供商来说过低，难以在当前AI芯片被替换之前收回投资。 AI数据中心所有者需要在2030年前累计获得8.5万亿美元收入，才能覆盖已宣布的资本支出、融资成本以及12%的投资资本回报率，但Gartner预测可归属的AI收入不超过3.6万亿美元。 按照当前轨迹，到2032年可能有超过4万亿美元的资产价值面临减值风险，而Gartner预计12%的回报率在2032年底之前不会实现。

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Gartner predicts cost pressure will force more than 80% of neocloud providers to cease independent operations by 2030. Hyperscalers face less risk because their large, diversified revenue could plausibly sustain AI investments for years. Gartner also forecasts AI-optimized IaaS spending will grow from $66B in 2027 to $174B in 2030. That growth is too low for most AI compute providers to recover their investments before current AI chips are replaced. AI data center owners would need $8.5T in cumulative revenue through 2030 to cover announced capex, financing costs and a 12% return on invested capital, yet Gartner forecasts attributable AI revenue of no more than $3.6T. On the current trajectory, more than $4T in asset value could be exposed to write-down risk through 2032, and Gartner does not expect the 12% return to be reached before the end of 2032.