Ethan Mollick 谈 AI 进展与 2027 预测

新播客：'你对AGI的信仰还不够' 我请@emollick告诉我，我在AI方面哪里判断错了。我们还聊了： - 为什么这么多专家一直低估模型能力的进展速度 - 为什么这么多专家一直*高估*强大AI改变宏观经济的速度 - 为什么上一个问题的答案要从“O型圈和垃圾桶”说起 - AI蜂群的社会学 - AI使用的悖论（或者用麦克卢汉的话说：'每一种技术增强同时也是一种截肢'） - 提示词的终结（或者说：如果个人AI代理变得如此擅长预判我们的需求，以至于曾经是提示者的人类，反倒成了被提示的一方，会发生什么） - 2027年预测以及……他那本出色的新书《CO-EXISTENCE》 https://t.co/FKNx0s2Brp

查看原文

New pod: 'YOU'RE NOT AGI-PILLED ENOUGH' I asked @emollick to tell me what I'm getting wrong about AI. We also talked about: - why so many experts keep underrating the rate of progress for model capabilities - why so many experts keep *overrating* how rapidly powerful AI will change the macroeconomy - why the answer to the previous question starts with "O-rings and garbage cans" - the sociology of AI swarms - the paradoxes of AI use (or: 'every technological augmentation is also an amputation,' per McLuhan) - the end of prompting (or: what happens if personal AI agents get so good at anticipating our needs that humans, once the prompter, become the prompted) - 2027 predictions and ... his excellent new book CO-EXISTENCE https://t.co/FKNx0s2Brp