美国银行研究：今年AI资本开支超预期50%，收入仅超20%
Bank of America’s new research finds AI capital spending running 50% above forecasts this year while revenue runs only 20% above, and that mismatch drives the r
美国银行新研究显示，今年AI资本开支比预测高出50%，而收入只高出20%，这一错配贯穿其后续分析。超大规模厂商的加权平均资本成本已从2023年的4%升至10%，无风险利率比疫情低点高出逾4%。该研究仍预计前五大超大规模厂商加neoclouds的资本开支在2026年为9560亿美元、2027年为1.32万亿美元、2028年为1.5万亿美元，增速分别为38%和14%；其需求测算认为2026至2030年需新增212GW数据中心容量，约合9.5万亿美元，比当前7.4万亿美元的资本开支预测高出2.1万亿美元。
正文
Bank of America’s new research finds AI capital spending running 50% above forecasts this year while revenue runs only 20% above, and that mismatch drives the rest of its analysis.
Hyperscalers’ weighted average cost of capital has risen from 4% in 2023 to 10%, as risk-free rates sit more than 4% above pandemic lows and debt costs, equity costs and betas have all climbed.
The BoA research still projects capex for the top 5 hyperscalers plus neoclouds at $956B in 2026, $1.32T in 2027 and $1.5T in 2028, which works out to growth of 38% and then 14%.
Its demand math puts 212GW of new data center capacity between 2026 and 2030 at about $9.5T, $2.1T above the current $7.4T capex forecast.