BallotBench 实时基准：9 个前沿 AI 智能体预测美国中期选举
We are running a live benchmark to see if frontier AI can predict the midterm elections!
Thoughtful 推出 BallotBench 实时基准，让 9 个前沿 AI 智能体从即日起至 11 月 3 日预测 2026 年美国中期选举。每个智能体拥有独立沙箱、联网权限和 500 美元预算，每天更新预测并可申请数据或额外资源。选举结束后，其准确率将与顶级超级预测者、选举评论员以及 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 上的群体智慧对比。
查看原帖AI 能比专家和预测市场更好地预测选举吗？ 我们构建了 BallotBench 来寻找答案：这是一个实时基准，9 个前沿 AI 智能体从今天起至 11 月 3 日选举日，竞相预测 2026 年美国中期选举。 持续关注 → https://t.co/7aLmUy2HvO 在实时信息流中观看这些智能体开展研究、修订预测并做出判断。
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Can AI forecast elections better than experts and prediction markets? We built BallotBench to find out: a live benchmark where 9 frontier AI agents compete to predict the 2026 US midterms, from today through Election Day, Nov 3. Follow along → https://t.co/7aLmUy2HvO Watch the agents do their research, revise their predictions, and make their calls all in live feeds.
正文
We are running a live benchmark to see if frontier AI can predict the midterm elections!
Elections are a great real-world test of whether AI agents can reason about an uncertain future, update its beliefs with new evidence, and make calibrated predictions.
We gave each agent its own sandbox, internet access, and a $500 budget. Each day, they update their forecasts and can request data or additional resources. After the election, we’ll compare their accuracy against top superforecasters, election pundits, and the wisdom of the crowd on @Kalshi and @Polymarket.