Ethan Mollick 评 DeepMind 智能经济学研究：智能体协调能力才是经济转型关键

我加入了@GoogleDeepMind，开展一项关于AGI经济学的研究计划。今天，我与Andrew Koh（@andrewjkoh）和Shane Legg（@ShaneLegg）一起，非常激动地发布《智能经济学》，这是我们团队关于AGI将如何改变经济的一系列项目中的第一个。 能力提升如何改变经济，又在何时改变？在本项目中，我们根据能力如何改变经济来定义经济能力的门槛，例如最低限度的AGI。随后，我们追踪经济——市场结构、就业和工资——在跨越不同能力体制的转型过程中如何变化。 我们已经看到AI智能体能做的事情呈指数级增长，但更广泛的经济似乎几乎惊人地没有变化。部分原因是，单个AI智能体是错误的經濟对象；经济转型是一种均衡结果，是组织在其中竞争的结果。考察智能在组织内部如何发挥作用，转型将取决于两个关键能力门槛何时被跨越：胜任力（在个人技能上的增益，例如编程、数学）和协调力（智能体合作与协同工作能力的增益）。 我们表明，经济转型呈现何种面貌，取决于AI是变得超强胜任、超强协作，还是两者兼具——即人工超级智能（ASI）体制。追踪这一转型可以说明，为什么真正可见的转型可能来自协调能力的提升——而这是大多数基准测试尚未追踪的一种能力。超过某个门槛后，AI能力可以打破企业规模的科斯天花板，并带来一个与今天所见截然不同的经济。 两个主要结论： 1. 要理解转型的路径，我们应更密切地追踪智能体协调能力。 2. AI的影响很可能先体现在工资上，然后才体现在市场结构或就业上。 我们对这篇论文感到非常兴奋。期待听到大家的想法。 链接：https://t.co/9DTGSeKoSA

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I joined @GoogleDeepMind to develop a research program on the economics of AGI. Today, together with Andrew Koh (@andrewjkoh) and Shane Legg (@ShaneLegg), we are incredibly excited to release The Economics of Intelligence, the first in a series of projects from our group on how AGI will change the economy. How do capability improvements transform the economy, and when? In this project, we define thresholds of economic capabilities, e.g., minimal AGI, based on how they transform the economy. We then track how the economy–market structure, employment, and wages–changes during the transition across capability regimes. We have seen exponential increases in what AI agents can do but the broader economy seems almost remarkably unchanged. Part of the reason is that the solo AI agent is the wrong economic object; economic transformation is an equilibrium outcome where organizations compete. Looking at how intelligence functions within organizations, transformation will depend on when two key capability thresholds are crossed: competence (gains on individual skills, e.g., coding, math) and coordination (gains on ability of agents to cooperate and work together). We show that what economic transformation looks like depends on whether AI becomes supercompetent, supercooperative, or both—the regime of artificial superintelligence (ASI). Tracking this transition shows why the real visible transformation may come from improvements in coordination—a capability most benchmarks don’t yet track. Past a certain threshold, AI capabilities can break the Coasian ceiling on firm size and lead to an economy that looks drastically different than the one we see today. Two main takeaways: 1. To understand the path of transformation, we should be tracking agentic coordination more closely. 2. The impact of AI will likely show up in wages before market structure or employment. We are really excited about this paper. Excited to hear people’s thoughts. Link: https://t.co/9DTGSeKoSA