达摩达兰发文给 Anthropic 估值 1.475 万亿美元
Dean of Valuation Professor Aswath Damodaran just published a long post valuing Anthropic at $1.475T.
纽约大学估值教授 Aswath Damodaran 发布长文，给 Anthropic 估值 1.475 万亿美元。他指出 Anthropic 上半年收入约为去年同期的 14 倍，但第三季度增速放缓，原因是 OpenAI 抢走份额且 Anthropic 算力不足；80.7B 美元的上半年账面亏损主要来自 72B 美元非现金债券费用，实际经营亏损略超 8B 美元，Anthropic 称上季度已实现经营盈利。他认为最大风险是超过 600B 美元的算力承诺，且 7 位联合创始人通过单一股份持有 50.1% 投票权。
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AI 评分 73
达摩达兰对 Anthropic 的估值拆解，把 80.7B 账面亏损与 600B 算力承诺放在一起看，提供了理解其财务结构的视角。
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Dean of Valuation Professor Aswath Damodaran just published a long post valuing Anthropic at $1.475T.
He says Anthropic’s voting setup, where 7 co-founders hold 50.1% of votes through a single share, “would put Kim Jong Un to shame.”
> Anthropic is growing fast but slowing: first-half revenue was about 14x a year earlier, then third-quarter growth cooled as OpenAI won share and Anthropic ran short of compute.
> The headline $80.7B first-half loss is mostly a $72B non-cash bond charge; the real operating loss was just over $8B, and Anthropic says it made an operating profit last quarter.
> The biggest risk is over $600B in compute commitments, a fixed bill owed even if growth stalls, while founders hold 50.1% of votes, leaving public shareholders little say.