Rohan Paul 转评 AI 前沿与大众差距

如今，在AI前沿工作的人与其他几乎所有人之间的差距之悬殊，几乎令人难以理解。 疯狂的是，这些差距线并没有收敛，反而在不断拉大。如果AI进步的曲线已经趋于平缓，那无疑会给大多数人和公司留出时间，去追赶或以标准化的方式落地自己的工作流程。这项技术本会消解竞争优势，因为所有人都会以同样的方式使用它。 但实际发生的恰恰相反。AI进步的曲线如今几乎是垂直上升的，这意味着如果你在3到6个月前就把流程固化下来，你很可能又已经落后了。再想想那些一年前就开始行动、并以为自己已经大功告成的公司，它们现在落后得更多。 在我的生活和职业生涯中，我从未见过一项技术以这样的速度进步，因此这也意味着你需要以同样的速度提升自己的预期。我们的大脑天生并不适应这一点，我们的组织变革管理流程当然也不适应。 只要有某种形式的递归式自我改进，事情就只会变得更加疯狂。在这个时期，你需要不断重新评估那些几个月前还行不通的事情，看看它们现在是否已经能够被解决。正因如此，AI原生公司目前无疑拥有明显优势，所以现在的问题就变成了：规模更大的公司能否跟上。真是疯狂的时代。

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It’s almost incomprehensible how wide the distance is between someone who’s working at the frontier with AI and basically everyone else right now. The crazy thing is these lines are not converging, but only growing farther apart. If the curve of AI progress had leveled off, it would certainly have given most people and companies time to catch up or implement their workflows in a standardized way. The technology would have neutralized competitive advantage because everyone would be using it the same way. But what’s happened is the opposite. The curve of AI progress is basically going vertical right now, which means if you had codified your processes 3-6 months ago you’re likely already behind again. Now imagine most companies that kicked into gear a year ago and thought that they were done. Even further behind now. I’ve never seen a technology in my life and career that improves at this rate, which consequently means you need to upgrade your expectations at a similar rate. Our brains weren’t wired for this, and our organizational change management processes certainly weren’t either. With any form of recursive self improvement, things just get wilder. It’s a time when you will need to be constantly reevaluating the things that didn’t work just a couple months ago to see if they now can be solved. AI native companies certainly have a strong advantage due to this right now, so now it comes down to can the bigger companies keep up. Wild times.