马斯克:各领域突破正呈指数级加速
If you look closely enough, breakthroughs in everything are accelerating exponentially.
马斯克发帖称,只要观察得足够仔细,各领域的突破都在指数级加速,而指数增长在初期总是显得很小。他引用了一条列举近半年生物科技进展的帖子作为背景。
主题
查看原帖这可能是我在生物科技垂直起飞前最后一条正常的推文 我不是吹哨人。我不在礼来、诺和诺德或任何大型实验室工作 但人类生物学领域此刻正在发生一场巨大的转变。 它就藏在新闻稿里,而几乎没有人去读 仅过去6个月: - 一款每日一次的口服药使转移性胰腺癌的中位生存期大约翻倍(13.2个月对6.6个月) - 一次性的基因编辑输注使遗传性血管性水肿发作减少87%,62%的患者在6个月内未再发作,并停用了所有其他预防措施 - 一次性的胆固醇基因编辑使LDL最高下降62%,且效果维持了一年多 - 一款个性化mRNA疫苗在1137名患者的黑色素瘤3期试验中单药击败了keytruda - retatrutide在3期试验中实现约28%的减重 - 一款AI设计的药物进入3期 - 一款能让头发再生的药丸通过了第二项3期试验 - 一种可能让部分直肠癌患者免于手术、化疗和放疗的免疫疗法刚刚获得FDA批准 - 一名男子靠猪肾在透析之外存活了271天 - 人类细胞被发现会向邻近细胞传递染色体大小的DNA片段,并改变邻近细胞的行为 我们正处在一个时代的边缘:人体成了一个软件问题,而更新周期每天都在缩短 敬请关注,事情会变得很离奇 bio/acc
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this might be my last normal tweet before biotech goes vertical i'm not a whistleblower. I don't work at Lilly, Novo or any of the big labs but there is a massive shift happening in human biology right now. it's sitting in press releases and almost nobody reads them the last 6 months alone: - a once-daily pill roughly doubled median survival in metastatic pancreatic cancer (13.2 vs 6.6 months) - a one-time gene editing infusion cut hereditary angioedema attacks 87%, and 62% of patients stayed attack-free and off all other prevention for 6 months - a one-time gene edit for cholesterol dropped LDL up to 62%, and it held for over a year - a personalized mrna vaccine beat keytruda alone in a 1,137 patient melanoma phase 3 - retatrutide hit ~28% weight loss in a phase 3 - an ai-designed drug entered phase 3 - a pill that regrows hair passed its second phase 3 - an immunotherapy that could let some rectal cancer patients skip surgery, chemo and radiation just got fda approved - a man lived 271 days off dialysis on a pig kidney - human cells were caught passing chromosome-sized chunks of DNA to their neighbors, and it changes how the neighbors behave we are on the verge of an era where the human body is a software problem and the update cycle gets shorter everyday stick around, it's going to get weird bio/acc
正文
If you look closely enough, breakthroughs in everything are accelerating exponentially.
An exponential always starts off looking small.