Anthropic 研究:机器人今天能做什么工作
Anthropic 发布机器人暴露度指数,用 Claude 评估现有机器人对 O*NET 约 1.9 万个工作任务的完成能力,结论是机器人可完成美国 74% 的体力任务、占全部工时的 34%,但多数限于受控环境。研究称机器人仅在 0.3% 的工作上具备成本竞争力,若按历史约每年 3% 的降价速度,这一比例达到 10% 需约 40 年;机器人与 LLM 合计覆盖约 80% 的工作任务。研究还发现暴露于机器人的岗位更偏向男性、学历较低和低薪,且过去 50 年这类岗位的工资与就业下降更多。
of tasks by work time at level E2. Only 8% of their work time is unexposed. For example, robots with computer vision and suction grippers can do the task “Sort materials, such as metals, glass, wood, paper or plastics, into appropriate containers for recycling.”³⁰ These robots stand in for workers picking recycling from conveyor belts, so this and other tasks are rated E2. Robots are highly capable at specific tasks for tapers, while for recycling workers exposure is broader, but robots are les
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