达摩德兰称 Anthropic IPO 将按 ARR 定价而非现金流估值
NYU professor Aswath Damodaran ("Dean of Valuation"), published a long blog and says Anthropic’s IPO will be priced on run-rate revenue rather than valued on ca
纽约大学教授 Aswath Damodaran 发文称，Anthropic 的 IPO 将按 run-rate 收入而非现金流定价，1.5 万亿至 2 万亿美元估值需要早期高速增长、营业利润率升至 30% 以上、算力成本增速低于收入等条件。他指出 ARR 没有统一口径，OpenAI 的 500 亿美元按合作销售净额计算，Anthropic 的 650 亿美元按总额计算，把 OpenAI 按总额折算后得到投资者流传的约 700 亿美元。他还提到 Anthropic 5 月一轮融资以 9650 亿美元投后估值募资 650 亿美元，而当时预期 IPO 定价为 1.15 万亿美元。
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达摩德兰拆解 Anthropic IPO 的定价逻辑，指出 ARR 口径不统一会让估值比较失真。
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查看原帖随着Anthropic的IPO临近目标日期，值得记住的是，IPO是要定价的，而作为一家收入不断增长、亏损巨大的年轻公司，这一定价将基于那些时髦而陌生的指标，从互联网时代的眼球，到社交媒体十年的用户，再到AI公司的ARR……https://t.co/5DXmDGcSTf
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As Anthropic's IPO nears its target date, it it worth remembering that IPOs get priced, and that as a young company with growing revenues and big losses, that pricing will be based on metrics that are buzzy and unfamiliar, from eyeballs in the dotcom era to users in the social media decade to ARR with AI companies...https://t.co/5DXmDGcSTf
正文
NYU professor Aswath Damodaran ("Dean of Valuation"), published a long blog and says Anthropic’s IPO will be priced on run-rate revenue rather than valued on cash flows.
> Justifying a $1.5T to $2T value for Anthropic requires very fast early growth, operating margins rising to 30% or more, compute costs growing slower than revenue, and risk falling to average as regulation and business models settle.
> H1 2026 losses of $8.7B at Anthropic and $21.6B at OpenAI, excluding non-cash charges, rule out earnings multiples, making ARR the AI equivalent of dot-com eyeballs and social-media user counts.
> ARR has no standard: OpenAI’s $50B counts partner sales net, Anthropic’s $65B counts them gross, and grossing up OpenAI produced the roughly $70B figure investors circulated. Both annualize monthly, a choice either can change.
> VC rounds here price the IPO rather than value the business: Anthropic’s May round raised $65B at $965B post-money when expected IPO pricing was $1.15T, a haircut for delay or disappointment.
> Pricing will likely migrate to 2030 or 2036 revenue and earnings, where 25 times 2036 earnings looks cheap only when wrongly compared with today’s multiples on current earnings.
> The cheaper lab depends on the yardstick: at $1.5T to $2T, Anthropic looks cheaper on current and year-end ARR, OpenAI on 2030 revenue, compute and users, and both may simply be overpriced.
> No listed pure-play peer exists, since Gemini sits inside Alphabet, xAI inside SpaceX and Muse inside Meta, so Anthropic will be priced against OpenAI’s private rounds or the Mag 7 and SpaceX.